EUR/USD: ECB in focus this week – OCBC

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

Recent ECB-speaks remain dovish and continued to point to measured pace of rate cut with no hint of a larger magnitude of rate cut. EUR/USD was last seen trading at 1.0485, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Bullish momentum on daily chart intact

"Stournaras said the cuts should be in the order of 25bp each time so that by end-2025, rates is close to 2%, from the 3% that we are today. Klass said that he is comfortable with market bets for rate cuts at the next 2 meetings but not convinced yet that ECB needs to go into simulative mode."

"Villeroy said it is plausible for rates to be around 2% in summer. Lagarde said that the disinflation process continues, and policymakers do not see themselves as behind the curve. ECB will maintain its measured approach to ease monetary policy. Markets expect a 25bp cut at upcoming meeting (Thursday)."

"Bullish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI shows tentative signs of falling from near overbought conditions. Some pullback is not ruled out this week. Support at 1.0420/30 levels (23.6% fibo, 50 DMA), 1.0350 (21 DMA). Resistance at 1.0520, 1.0570 levels (38.2% fibo retracement of Sep high to Jan low)."

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

EUR/USD holds lower ground near 1.1850 ahead of EU/ US data

EUR/USD remains in the negative territory for the fourth successive session, trading around 1.1850 in European trading on Friday. A broadly cautious market environment paired with modest US Dollar demand undermines the pair ahead of the Eurozone GDP second estimate and the critical US CPI data.

GBP/USD keeps losses around 1.3600, awaits US CPI for fresh impetus

GBP/USD holds moderate losses at around 1.3600 in the European session on Friday, though it lacks bearish conviction. The US Dollar remains supported amid softer risk tone and ahead of the US consumer inflation figures due later in the NA session on Friday.

Gold trims intraday gains to $5,000 as US inflation data loom

Gold retreats from the vicinity of the $5,000 psychological mark, though sticks to its modest intraday gains heading into the European session. Traders now look forward to the release of the US consumer inflation figures for more cues about the Fed policy path. The outlook will play a key role in influencing the near-term US Dollar price dynamics and provide some meaningful impetus to the non-yielding bullion.

US CPI data set to show modest inflation cooling as markets price in a more hawkish Fed

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish January’s Consumer Price Index data on Friday, delayed by the brief and partial United States government shutdown. The report is expected to show that inflationary pressures eased modestly but also remained above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

A tale of two labour markets: Headline strength masks underlying weakness

Undoubtedly, yesterday’s delayed US January jobs report delivered a strong headline – one that surpassed most estimates. However, optimism quickly faded amid sobering benchmark revisions.

Solana Price Forecast: Mixed market sentiment caps recovery

Solana (SOL) is trading at $79 as of Friday, following a correction of over 9% so far this week. On-chain and derivatives data indicates mixed sentiment among traders, further limiting the chances of a price recovery.