EUR/USD bumping towards 1.07 in Monday bullish bounce

The EUR/USD is shifting higher to kick off the new trading week, claiming ground that was recently lost in last week’s backslide.

The Euro (EUR) has managed to turn Monday into the green against the Greenback (USD) after opening the day near 1.0668, and the pair is currently tapping into the ceiling near 1.0700.

Fed rate call coming down the chute on Wednesday

It’s going to be a Dollar-dominant week for the EUR/USD with the economic calendar notably thin for the European Union (EU) side of the equation, and the Federal Reserve (Fed) slated for another rate call in the midweek.

The Fed is largely expected to stand pat on interest rates at 5.5%, but investors will be keeping a close eye on the Fed’s ‘dot plot’ and inflation expectations, as well as looking for any forward-looking indications during the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) press conference. The Fed’s rate call drops at 18:00 GMT on Wednesday, with the press conference slated for half an hour later at 18:30.

US Initial Jobless Claims for the week into September 15th land on Thursday at 12:30 GMT, followed by preliminary Consumer Confidence figures at 14:00. US jobless claims last printed at 220K, while EU consumer sentiment is expected to decline slightly from -16 to -16.5.

Both releases are expected to be medium impact and market participants will largely be focused on Friday’s Purchasing Manager Indexes (PMI) for both the EU and the US.

The EU’s Composite PMI, scheduled early Friday at 08:00 GMT is expected to decline slightly from 46.7 to 46.3, while the US side sees similar expectations at 13:45 GMT. The US Manufacturing PMI is forecast to slide from 47.9 to 47.8, while the services component is expected to tick down to 50.3 from 50.5.

EUR/USD technical outlook

Euro bulls will be looking to mark in a green week after the EUR/USD pair has closed bearish for the past nine consecutive weeks, and daily candlesticks have the pair firmly on the downside.

The 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) sits above current prices, parked near 1.0830, and the 34-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) has given a bearish cross, gaining downside momentum into 1.0800.

Both the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence-Divergence (MCAD) indicator are on the low end, implying oversold conditions, and it’s the bulls’ game to lose if the Federal Reserve gives any surprises that could send the USD higher.

EUR/USD daily chart

EUR/USD technical levels