|

EUR/USD bulls take a breather above 1.16

  • Political woes in Italy resurface on Thursday.
  • Falling T-bond yields drag the DXY to mid-94s.
  • Macroeconomic data from the U.S. disappoint.

The EUR/USD pair benefited from the broad-based selling pressure witness on the USD in the early NA session and erased its daily losses to turn positive above the 1.16 mark. After advancing to a fresh session high at 1.1633, the pair lost its momentum and was last seen trading at 1.1603, where it was up 0.25% on the day.

The sudden risk-aversion felt in the last cıouple of hours dragged the 10-year US T-bond yields below the 2.9% mark and weighed on the greenback. The US Dollar Index, which rallied to a fresh 11-month high above 95 earlier today, dropped all the way down to 94.33 before starting to consolidate its losses. At the moment, the index is down 0.23% on the day at 94.55.

Meanwhile, today's data from the United States disappointed with the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index missing the market expectation of 29 with 19.9 in June. Furthermore, the housing price index came in at 0.1% in April to fall short of experts' estimate of 0.3%.

On the other hand, the shared currency could have a difficult time extending its rivals in the near-term amid political jitters in Italy. Alberto Bagnai, a known anti-euro economist, was announced as the new head of Italian parliamentary finance committee as the League and the anti-establishment 5-Star Movement put together their coalition government.

Technical outlook

Despite this recent rise, the RSI indicator on the daily chart continues to stay below the 50 mark, suggesting that buyers are not yet dominant enough for the pair to stretch higher. The pair could encounter the first technical resistance at 1.1685 (20-DMA), ahead of 1.1735 (May 31 high) and 1.1815 (Jun. 14 high). On the downside, supports are located at 1.1505/00 (daily low/psychological level/May 29 low), 1.1435 (Jul. 17, 2017 low) and 1.1370 (Jul. 13, 2017, low). 

Author

Eren Sengezer

As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.

More from Eren Sengezer
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD ticks lower following the release of FOMC Minutes

The US Dollar found some near-term demand following the release of the FOMC meeting minutes, with the EUR/USD pair currently piercing the 1.1750 threshold. The document showed officials are still willing to trim interest rates. Meanwhile, thinned holiday trading keeps major pairs confined to familiar levels.

GBP/USD remains sub- 1.3500, remains in the red

The GBP/USD lost traction early in the American session, maintaining the sour tone and trading around 1.3460 following the release of the FOMC meeting minutes. Trading conditions remain thin ahead of the New Year holiday, limiting the pair's volatility.

Gold stable above $4,350 as the year comes to an end

Gold price got to recover some modest ground on Tuesday, holding on to intraday gains and changing hands at $4,360 a troy ounce in the American afternoon. The bright metal showed no reaction to the release of the FOMC December meeting minutes.

Ethereum: ETH holds above $2,900 despite rising selling activity

Ethereum (ETH) held the $2,900 level despite seeing increased selling pressure over the past week. The Exchange Netflow metric showed deposits outweighed withdrawals by about 400K ETH. The high value suggests rising selling activity amid the holiday season.

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is.  Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets (RWA).