EUR/USD: 100-day MA caps upside despite Powell’s comments, focus on US ADP

  • The EUR bulls have a new level to beat in the short-term – the 100-day moving average.
  • A bullish close above the 100-day MA ma remain elusive if the US macro data betters estimates forcing markets to scale back expectations of Fed rate cuts.

EUR/USD failed to take out key moving average hurdle on Tuesday despite dovish comments from Federal Reserve’s chief and could fall back to 1.12 if the US jobs data due today betters estimates.

Federal Reserve’s Chairman Powell was out on the wires in the US session on Tuesday stating that the bank would cut rates if the escalating trade tensions begin to have a negative impact on the economy.

Meanwhile, Fed’s Bullard said that a rate cut might be “warranted soon,” and that current interest rates might be “inappropriately high”.

Even so, the EUR/USD pair failed to pierce the 100-day moving average resistance at 1.1277 and closed at 1.1251.

As of writing, the pair is trading at 1.1264. The descending triangle breakout confirmed on Monday is still valid. However, a close above the 100-day MA is needed to strengthen the bullish case.

However, a bullish close above the 100-day MA may remain elusive if the US ADP data, due at 12:15 GMT, and the ISM non-manufacturing data, due at 14:00 GMT, blows past expectations, alleviating fears of deeper economic slowdown in the world’s biggest economy.

The ADP data is expected to show the private sector added 183K jobs in May. Meanwhile, the ISM non-manufacturing index is forecasted to remain unchanged at 55.5 in May.

Ahead of the US ADP data, the pair may take cues from the final German services PMI and Eurozone retail sales figure.

Technical Levels


Today last price 1.1264
Today Daily Change 0.0012
Today Daily Change % 0.11
Today daily open 1.1252
Daily SMA20 1.1188
Daily SMA50 1.1211
Daily SMA100 1.1279
Daily SMA200 1.1375
Previous Daily High 1.1278
Previous Daily Low 1.1226
Previous Weekly High 1.1218
Previous Weekly Low 1.1116
Previous Monthly High 1.1266
Previous Monthly Low 1.1107
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.1259
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.1246
Daily Pivot Point S1 1.1226
Daily Pivot Point S2 1.12
Daily Pivot Point S3 1.1174
Daily Pivot Point R1 1.1278
Daily Pivot Point R2 1.1304
Daily Pivot Point R3 1.133



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