EUR shorts increased, GBP shorts trimmed - Rabobank

Sandeep Kanihama FXStreet Contributor

According to the IMM net speculators’ positioning as at April 9, 2019, speculators increased their bearish bets on the euro further with short positions rising to the highest level since early December 2016 in early April, notes the research team at Rabobank.

Key Quotes

“While at this stage short EUR does look like a pain trade as EUR/USD has been trading relatively well so far in April, the bearish view on the single currency is still valid.”

“Essentially, the Eurozone continues to underperform the US economy by a mile and the interest rate differential is skewed firmly in favour of the dollar as reflected in an increase in USD net long positions to the highest level in four weeks. Looking further ahead, EUR/USD is likely to lean lower in the coming months with 1.10 as our 6-9 month target.”

“GBP net shorts have been trimmed further to the lowest level since June 2018.”

“With speculative positions almost neutral, market participants can keep their powder dry for next sharp move in GBP/USD. The pair is stuck between the upside trendline from the December low and the trendline resistance from the March high. In the coming days/week cable will approach an inflection point, i.e. it will break from this consolidation phase.”

“Fading market concerns about global slowdown led to a further rise in JPY net short positions. This coincided with a recent rebound in USD/JPY which has reached a crucial technical pivot: the resistance area formed by the Nov/Dec lows around 112.24 level and the March high at 112.14. This area must be cleared to improve the technical outlook for USD/JPY, which provides clues for other asset classes as well, including emerging markets.”

Author

Sandeep Kanihama

FXStreet Contributor

Sandeep Kanihama is an FX Editor and Analyst with FXstreet having principally focus area on Asia and European markets with commodity, currency and equities coverage. He is stationed in the Indian capital city of Delhi.

AUD/USD remains under presure above 0.7000; focus on data

AUD/USD has met some renewed selling pressure on Thursday, coming down from tops near 0.7040 to revisit the 0.7000 region ahead of the opening bell in Asia. The pair’s daily decline has come despite a lacklustre performance in the Greenback at the time when investors continued to monitor developments from the Middle East. Looking ahead, the release of flash PMIs will grab the attention in Oz at the end of the week.

USD/JPY declines to a one-week low; eyes trading range support near 157.50 on weaker USD

USD/JPY drops to a one-week low during Thursday’s Asian session, with bears now awaiting a break below multi-week range support near mid-157.00s before placing fresh bets amid a broadly weaker US Dollar. Despite bets for a December Fed rate hike and Middle East jitters, the recent decline in US bond yields keeps USD depressed near a three-week low. Moreover, hawkish BoJ expectations and intervention risks underpin the Japanese Yen, further weighing on the currency pair.

Gold remains offered just above $4,000

Gold prices resume their decline on Thursday, easing toward the area of two-month lows around $4,050 per troy ounce. Higher crude oil prices have reignited speculation of further tightening by the Fed, supporting the US Dollar and weighing on the precious metal.

The estimates keep falling: Why Bitcoin's quantum countdown is accelerating

The threat that Artificial Intelligence (AI) and quantum computing pose to Bitcoin (BTC) and cryptocurrencies in general is no longer a matter of if hardware will catch up; it is a matter of when. Advances in AI-assisted research are adding a new dimension to the quantum computing threat, although neither technology can currently break Bitcoin’s cryptography on its own.

The Bank of England just got its clearest reason to hike. Here's what it's really watching

UK inflation as measured by the CPI accelerated to 3.5% YoY in September, up from 3.1% in August, according to the Office for National Statistics. This is the highest level since October 2025, exceeding economists' expectations of 3.4% and pushing inflation further from the BoE's 2% target.

What November 3 means for the Fed's rate path and the US Dollar

The USD faces a decisive period ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. While markets anticipate another interest rate increase from the Fed in December, the battle for control of Congress could reshape fiscal policy expectations and, indirectly, the path of US monetary policy in 2027.