Inflation outcomes in the coming months will be crucial for whether the Riksbank (RB) will stick to its hiking plan for this year and will be the most important macro factor for the direction of EUR/SEK, according to Senior Analyst, Jens Nærvig Pedersen at Danske Bank.
“First, we will see if December lands at 1.9% (CPIF) as we expect - one tenth below RB. The outcomes in Denmark and Norway suggest downside risk to our forecast, which would support our base case for a softer RB and higher EUR/SEK. A high outcome could of course interfere with that view.”
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