EUR/PLN to remain well above 4.40 as NBP limits the downside – Rabobank

According to Piotr Matys, Senior Emerging Markets FX Strategist at Rabobank , the downside remains limited in EUR/PLN by domestic COVID-19 restrictions and the National Bank of Poland (NBP).

Key quotes

“In addition to prevailing uncertainty about the pace of economic recovery - which will be strongly influenced by the vaccination process and whether a new variant of covid emerges, the preference of the NBP for a softer zloty will prevent EUR/PLN from falling markedly in the first half of the year.” 

“Even if the initial support at 4.4730 is cleared, the NBP may step in again directly into the market to keep EUR/PLN well above 4.40.”