EUR/NOK: No clear arguments in sight for a stronger krone – Nordea

Economists at Nordea see NOK trading sideways against both EUR and USD in the short-term. EUR/NOK will likely fall somewhat further this year – only very gradually – but the downside in USD/NOK is very limited.

Risk is to the upside for both EUR/NOK and USD/NOK crosses

“We see EUR/NOK trading in the range 10.00-10.25 in the short-term, but the risk is to the upside – as it usually is over brief periods.” 

“Somewhat higher oil prices and higher rates in Norway is why we hold our view for EUR/NOK coming below 10.00 by the summer. But the downside from there is likely restricted: EUR/NOK traded mostly in the range 9.50-10.00 during 2018/19 and we don’t expect to see much more downside than that.”

“We see USD/NOK trading sideways in the short-term, but the risk is to the upside. Norges Bank hiking the key rate later this year and higher oil prices ahead point in the direction of a somewhat stronger NOK on a trade weighted basis. However, we also believe the USD will strengthen somewhat ahead.”

“A continued strengthening of both NOK and USD is why we see a fairly stable USD/NOK ahead. If we were forced to lean in any direction, the USD could strengthen somewhat more than NOK due to the outperformance of the US economy. Anyhow, we see very limited downside in USD/NOK ahead.”