EUR/JPY weakens to near 162.00 amid dovish ECB, intervention fears


  • EUR/JPY edges lower to near 162.15 in Monday’s early European session, down 0.20% on the day. 
  • A dovish ECB could undermine the shared currency in the near term. 
  • BOJ policymaker said the bank must scrutinize risks and avoid premature rate hikes. 

The EUR/JPY cross attracts some sellers to around 162.15 during the early European session on Monday. The dovish tone of the European Central Bank (ECB) officials continues to weigh on the Euro (EUR) against the Japanese Yen (JPY). Investors will focus on ECB President Christine Lagarde's speech on Tuesday for fresh catalysts. 

The rising speculation that the ECB may accelerate its pace of policy easing could exert some selling pressure on the EUR. The ECB lowered the deposit rate by a further 25 basis points (bps) at its October meeting. President Christine Lagarde said during the press conference that there is “probably” more downside than upside risk to the ECB’s inflation forecast. 

Lagarde added that the central bank will not pre-commit to any particular rate path and would analyze all available data between now and December before deciding the next steps. ECB policymaker François Villeroy de Galhau said on Saturday that the Euro-area consumer price growth probably will be at the ECB’s 2% target in early 2025, per Bloomberg.

On the other hand, the verbal intervention from Japanese authorities supports the JPY. On Friday, Japan's top currency diplomat, Atsushi Mimura, stated that the officials will monitor the foreign exchange moves with a high sense of urgency. 

Nonetheless, the uncertainty over the timing and pace of further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) should cap the upside for the JPY and create a tailwind for EUR/JPY. The BoJ policymaker Seiji Adachi said last week that the Japanese central bank must raise interest rates at a "very moderate" pace and avoid hiking prematurely. 

Japanese Yen FAQs

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.

One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.

Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.

The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

 

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended content


Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD stays below 1.0550 as traders exercise caution ahead of the US CPI

EUR/USD stays below 1.0550 as traders exercise caution ahead of the US CPI

EUR/USD remains subdued for the fourth consecutive day, trading around 1.0530 during the Asian session on Wednesday. However, the pair faced challenges as the US Dollar gained support from market caution, which could be attributed to the upcoming US Consumer Price Index data release due on Wednesday.

EUR/USD News
GBP/USD steadies near 1.2800 as traders expect BoE to maintain current interest rates

GBP/USD steadies near 1.2800 as traders expect BoE to maintain current interest rates

GBP/USD extends its winning streak for the third successive session, trading around 1.2780 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The Pound Sterling gains support against its major peers as traders become increasingly confident that the Bank of England will keep its interest rates unchanged at 4.75% in December’s monetary policy decision.

GBP/USD News
Gold price extends corrective slide from over two-week top; focus remains on US CPI report

Gold price extends corrective slide from over two-week top; focus remains on US CPI report

Gold price retreats from over a two-week top as bulls turn cautious ahead of the US CPI report. Bets for a less dovish Fed, rising US bond yields underpin the USD and weigh on the commodity. Geopolitical risks, trade war fears and rate-cut bets should help limit losses for the XAU/USD. 

Gold News
US CPI set to grow at faster pace in November, edging further away from Fed target

US CPI set to grow at faster pace in November, edging further away from Fed target

The US Consumer Price Index report for November, a key measure of inflation, will be unveiled at 13:30 GMT by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Markets are buzzing in anticipation, as the release could trigger significant swings in the US Dollar and influence the Federal Reserve's plans for interest rates in the months ahead.

Read more
How the US-China trade dispute is redefining global trade

How the US-China trade dispute is redefining global trade

Since Donald Trump took office in 2017, trade flows and market shares have changed substantially. We think that shift is set to continue under looming tariffs and a new protectionist environment.

Read more
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads

Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads

VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.

Read More

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures