|

EUR/JPY: Surprisingly steady – ING

Despite global equity market moves, EUR/JPY is diverging from its usual correlations, driven by a dollar sell-off and repatriation flows from Europe and Japan. With the yen seen as more undervalued and the BoJ leaning hawkish, the pair carries a downside bias in the near term, ING’s FX analysts Francesco Pesole and Chris Turner note.

EUR/JPY breaks from equity correlation

"EUR/JPY has continued to defy its normally positive correlation with global equity markets. The story here is the big sell-off in the dollar and the flight to the liquidity of both the euro and the yen. Equally, both the European and the Japanese are the big investor communities potentially repatriating assets from the US. Balance of Payments data may eventually confirm this."

"We do, however, think EUR/JPY has a downside bias since USD/JPY can fall further than the EUR/USD can rally. The yen is more undervalued in the medium term according to our models. Equally, the BoJ is still minded to hike rates and more minded to give Washington the stronger currency (weaker $) that it craves."

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

More from FXStreet Insights Team
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD holds above 1.1750 due to cautious trade before FOMC Minutes

EUR/USD holds ground after four days of little losses, trading around 1.1770 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair remains steady as US Dollar moves little amid market caution ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee December Meeting Minutes due later in the day, which could offer insights into the Federal Reserve’s 2026 outlook.

GBP/USD finds key support near 1.35 despite year-end grind

GBP/USD remains bolstered on the high end as markets grind through the last trading week of the year. Cable caught a bullish tilt to keep price action on the high side of the 1.3500 handle, though year-end holiday volumes are unlikely to see significant progress in either direction as 2025 draws to a close.

Gold gains on Fed rate cut bets, safe-haven demand

Gold price edges higher above $4,350 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The precious metal recovers some lost ground after falling 4.5% in the previous session, which was gold's largest single-day loss since October. Increased margin requirements on gold and silver futures by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group, one of the world’s largest trading floors for commodities, prompted widespread profit-taking and portfolio rebalancing.

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is.  Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries, adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets.

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is.  Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets (RWA).