|

EUR/JPY sticks to modest recovery gains, above 128.00 mark post-ECB

   •  ECB leaves interest rates unchanged, as was widely anticipated.
   •  Risk-recovery denting JPY’s safe-haven status and remain supportive.

The EUR/JPY cross held on to its modest recovery gains, just above the 128.00 handle, and had a rather muted reaction to the latest ECB decision. 

The cross moved little after the ECB, at the October meeting, the reaffirmed to wind down its bond-purchase program by the end of this year and leave interest rates unchanged at least until next summer. 

The decision was on expected lines and did little to provide any fresh bullish impetus to the shared currency. However, a goodish rebound across European equity markets was seen weighing on the Japanese Yen's safe-haven status and helped the cross to hold above 2-month lows, set earlier today. 

Market participants also seemed reluctant to place any aggressive bets and now look forward to the post-meeting press conference, where comments by the ECB President Mario Draghi will play an important role in driving sentiment surrounding the common currency and produce some meaningful trading opportunities.

Technical levels to watch

A sustained move beyond the 128.30-40 zone is likely to accelerate the up-move towards reclaiming the 129.00 handle en-route 100-day SMA barrier near mid-129.00s. On the flip side, weakness back below the 128.00 mark might continue to find some support ahead of mid-127.00s, below which the cross is likely to accelerate the fall towards the 127.10-127.00 support area en-route the 126.60-55 region. 
 

Author

Haresh Menghani

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

More from Haresh Menghani
Share:

Editor's Picks

AUD/USD holds above 0.6950 as bullish USD caps gains

AUD/USD edges lower during the Asian session on Tuesday, stalling a two-day recovery move from a two-month low, touched last week. An extended rout in the fixed income market keeps US bond yields elevated near multi-year highs. This, along with geopolitical uncertainties, helps the US Dollar retain its bullish tone despite receding October Fed hike bets. However, expectations for another RBA rate hike this month could act as a tailwind for the Aussie.

USD/JPY rises back above 158.00 despite hawkish BoJ outlook

USD/JPY rises back above 158.00 in the early European morning on Tuesday. The pair strengthens as the Japanese Yen fails to find any inspiration from hawkish BoJ expectations and looming intervention risks. Meanwhile, geopolitical uncertainty and elevated US bond yields keep the US Dollar near its YTD high despite receding October Fed hike bets. This, in turn, helps the pair stay supported.

Gold rebounds from two-month lows as US Dollar, Treasury yields retreat

Gold (XAU/USD) rebounds on Tuesday as a pullback in US Treasury yields weighs on the US Dollar (USD), helping the metal recover after falling to a two-month low of $4,104 during Asian trading hours. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,173, up 0.82% on the day.

Ripple and Stellar weaken as derivatives positioning fades
Ripple (XRP) and Stellar (XLM) face pressure trading below $1.499 and $0.220, respectively, on Tuesday after a modest correction at the start of the week. Traders should be cautious as weakening derivatives metrics and fading bullish momentum suggest further corrections for XRP and XLM. Derivatives data shows a weakening and cautious signal among traders.
Europe in focus as French and Spanish politics drive sentiment

There are no tier-1 releases today. Focus will remain on developments in the European markets and geopolitical developments in the Middle East. In France, the key issue in the coming days will be whether the Socialists and Marine Le Pen's National Rally signal they are willing to topple the government over the budget.

Eurozone inflation just hit 3.8%, its highest in three years. This chart shows why the ECB can’t simply hike its way out

The ECB would normally have a relatively straightforward answer to inflation running almost twice its target: raise interest rates. But these are not normal circumstances. This time, the bond market is already doing part of the tightening for it, leaving the ECB facing an increasingly difficult dilemma.