EUR/JPY: extends losses below 200-D SMA, eyes now on 200-W SMA

EUR/JPY: VIX picks up, stocks tank.
EUR/JPY: headed for 200-W SMA.
EUR/JPY: political risks coming to the surface?

Ross J Burland FXStreet

EUR/JPY is making further ground below the 200-D SMA while the euro falls below the rising 50-D SMA and US stocks take a hit.

Currently, EUR/JPY is trading at 130.21, down -0.83% on the day, having posted a daily high at 131.55 and low at 130.10. Despite a lower dollar, the euro is on the backfoot and the yen is picking up a safe heaven bid while stocks correct to the downside. Gold is picking up a bid also while the VIX heads towards the psychological 20 level.

EUR/JPY below 200- D SMA first time since April 2017 - Scotiabank

In terms of fundamentals, there was a slight miss in EZ CPI y/y by -0.1% at 1.0% vs the expectations of 1.1% vs prior 1.0%.

In other data:

DE GfK Consumer Sentiment Mar, 10.8, f'cast 10.9, prev 11.0 - RRTS.
DE Unemployment Chg SA Feb, -22k, f'cast -15k, prev -25k - RRTS.
DE Unemployment Total NSA Feb, 2.546 mln, prev 2.570M - RRTS.
DE Unemployment Rate SA Feb, 5.4%, f'cast 5.4%, prev 5.4% - RRTS.
DE Unemployment Total SA Feb, 2.393 mln, prev 2.415 mln - RRTS.
GB GfK Consumer Confidence Feb, -10, f'cast -10, prev -9 - RRTS.
Japan Jan industrial output -6.6% m/m, -4.2% eyed, Feb eyed at +9.0%, Mar -2.7% - RRTS.
Japan Jan retail sales +1.6% y/y, +2.1% eyed, Dec +3.6%, Nov +2.1% - RRTS.

EU's Barnier warned that time running out for Brexit deal while Weidmann said that the ECB could end bond buys this year. Meanwhile, BOJ's Kuroda says policy normalization would be 'very gradual'.

Key political risks

In the background, there are political risks building up that that market has been quite sanguine about so far. Sunday's German SPD membership vote unexpectedly rejected a grand coalition with Merkel's conservatives. At the same time, we have the Italian elections coming up. Markets need to keep an eye on the eurosceptic Lega. Should the unexpected happen, and Lega wins more seats than Forza Italia there will be a centre-right coalition. The market is still very unbalanced on the long side when it comes to speculative positions and a political upset could send the euro crashing as positions are squared off, while the cross would plummet as the yen pulls in the safe haven flows.

EUR/JPY levels

The 200-week ma at 129.60 is next support guarding a breakdown to 128.00. On the flipside, 134.40 is the key resistance above 132.80/133.30and the 55-day ma at 134.29.

Author

Ross J Burland

FXStreet

Ross J Burland, born in England, UK, is a sportsman at heart. He played Rugby and Judo for his county, Kent and the South East of England Rugby team.

GBP/USD appears well offered near 1.3160

GBP/USD builds on Tuesday’s losses, although it now manages to pick up some pace and bounce off earlier multi-month troughs near 1.3140. The Greenback’s solid performance and continued political turmoil in the UK are keeping Cable under persistent pressure, with little sign of a meaningful recovery.

EUR/USD softens to near 1.1350 as Fed hike bets rise ahead of PCE inflation data

The EUR/USD pair declines to around 1.1355 during the early Asian trading hours on Thursday. The Euro weakens to its lowest level since June 2025 against the US Dollar as traders increase their bets on US interest rate hikes later this year. The US May Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation data will be the highlight on Thursday.

Gold off YTD lows, still struggles around $4,000 on hawkish Fed bets

Gold is off year-to-date lows, still struggling around $4,000 in the Asian session on Thursday as bears pause following the overnight slump to the lowest level since November 2025. Despite easing inflationary concerns amid falling oil prices, elevated Fed rate-hike bets help the US Dollar preserve its recent strong gains to the highest level since May 2025, weighing on non-yielding bullion.

Crypto market sheds over 50% of its value amid Bitcoin's brief decline below $60K

The crypto market has erased more than half of its value since reaching an all-time high in late 2025. The decline underscores the severity of the recent bear market and lack of a fresh catalyst to revive investor interest, according to a Wednesday X post by The Kobeissi Letter. The total crypto market cap peaked at a record $4.3 trillion on October 6, 2025.

5.90% to 5.45%: Why the Pound ignored the bond market’s relief rally

Keir Starmer resigned on Monday, and the Pound barely moved. That near-silence is the tell. Sterling's real driver these past four months has not been the prime minister, nor the left-leaning frontrunner lining up to replace him, but the long end of the gilt curve, which answers to a force no British politician controls.

Regime change: Inside Kevin Warsh's first move to make the Fed unreadable on purpose

The rate did not move. That was the least interesting thing about Kevin Warsh's first meeting in charge of the Fed. The FOMC held its benchmark at 3.50%-3.75% for the fourth straight meeting, exactly as priced, and then the new chair used his first press conference to dismantle the machinery the market has leaned on for a decade.