EUR/JPY battle to regain the 20-day SMA, bears remain resilient

EUR/JPY bears are presenting a battle to the bulls at the 20-day SMA, with the buyers struggling to consolidate above.
The daily chart flashes bullish signals, with the four-hour indicators indicating at exhaustion.
Fundamentals favour the EUR over the JPY.

Patricio Martín FXStreet

On Tuesday, the EUR/JPY cross slightly advanced to the 158.36 area over the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), but the buyers struggle to make a significant upward movement.

The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests a neutral to bullish stance for EUR/JPY as the bulls work on recovering their ground and seem to be slow. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) demonstrates a favourable upward trend above its midline, while the Moving Average Convergence (MACD) histogram displays fading red bars.

However, on the four-hour chart, the same indicators show signs of bullish exhaustion, with the RSI turning south and the MACD displaying flat green bars.

Regarding trends, the pair is above the 20,100,200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), pointing towards the prevailing strength of the bulls in the larger context. However, if the buyers fail to consolidate above the 20-day SMA, another downward leg may be in sight for the pair. On the fundamental’s side, the outlook is more favourable for the EUR, mainly driven by monetary policy divergences between the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ).

EUR/JPY Levels to watch

Support levels: 158.37 (20-day SMA), 158.00, 157.00.

Resistance levels: 159.00, 159.50, 160.00

EUR/JPY Daily Chart

EUR/JPY

Overview
Today last price	158.36
Today Daily Change	0.32
Today Daily Change %	0.20
Today daily open	158.04

Trends
Daily SMA20	158.35
Daily SMA50	157.1
Daily SMA100	153.58
Daily SMA200	148.09

Levels
Previous Daily High	158.25
Previous Daily Low	157.33
Previous Weekly High	159.76
Previous Weekly Low	157.06
Previous Monthly High	159.76
Previous Monthly Low	155.53
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	157.9
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	157.68
Daily Pivot Point S1	157.5
Daily Pivot Point S2	156.96
Daily Pivot Point S3	156.58
Daily Pivot Point R1	158.41
Daily Pivot Point R2	158.79
Daily Pivot Point R3	159.33

Author

Patricio Martín

FXStreet

Patricio is an economist from Argentina passionate about global finance and understanding the daily movements of the markets.

EUR/USD struggles to regain momentum in the low1.1600s

EUR/USD is giving some signs of life in the aftermath of two severe days of losses on Wednesday, reclaiming the 1.1600 hurdle and above on the back of the resurgence of a mild selling bias around the US Dollar. Moving forward, the usual US weekly Claims will take centre stage on Thursday ahead of Friday’s crucial NFP data.

GBP/USD tests key moving averages as growth downgrade weighs

GBP/USD was nearly flat on Wednesday, edging up 0.08% to settle around 1.3370 in a quiet session. The pair has fallen sharply from its late-January high near 1.3870 and is now testing the 200-day Exponential Moving Average, with this week's one-week forex heatmap showing Pound Sterling as one of the worst performers against the US Dollar, down about 1.4% on the week.

Gold benefits from a retreating USD; reduced Fed rate cut bets cap gains

Gold attracts some buyers for the second consecutive day on Thursday amid a modest US Dollar pullback from an over three-month high, though it remains below the $5,200 mark. Wednesday's upbeat US macro data further tempered hopes for three rate cuts by the Fed in 2026. Furthermore, escalating Middle East tensions might continue to benefit the USD's status as the global reserve currency and contribute to capping the bullion.