- EUR/GBP struggles to gain any meaningful traction and oscillates in a narrow band on Friday.
- A bleak outlook for the UK economy undermines the Sterling and continues to lend support.
- The recent hawkish ECB rhetoric underpins the Euro and supports prospects for further gains.
The EUR/GBP cross consolidates its recent gains to the highest level since September 29 touched earlier this Friday and seesaws between tepid gains/minor losses through the early European session. The cross remains below the 0.8900 round-figure mark following the release of the UK macro data, though seems poised to prolong the uptrend witnessed since the beginning of this week.
The UK Office for National Statistics reported that the economy expanded a modest 0.1% in November as compared to estimates for a 0.2% contraction. This, however, marked a notable slowdown from the 0.5% growth recorded in October. Moreover, weaker-than-expected UK industrial and manufacturing production data adds to the bleak outlook for the UK economy, which has been fueling speculations that the Bank of England (BoE) is nearing the end of the current rate-hiking cycle. This, in turn, could undermine the British Pound and lend some support to the EUR/GBP cross.
The shared currency, on the other hand, continues to draw support from more hawkish signals from the European Central Bank (ECB). In fact, several ECB officials spoke this week and confirmed that they will have to raise interest rates further in the coming months to tame inflation. That said, a modest US Dollar recovery keeps a lid on the Euro and holds back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets around the EUR/GBP cross. Nevertheless, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the upside.
Even from a technical perspective, the overnight convincing breakout through the 0.8865-0.8875 supply zone supports prospects for a further near-term appreciating move. Some follow-through buying beyond the 0.8900 round figure will reaffirm the positive outlook and allow the EUR/GBP cross to reclaim the 0.9000 psychological mark.
Technical levels to watch
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