EUR/GBP Price Analysis: Remains subdued and oscillates above 0.8600 amid risk-off impulse

EUR/GBP encounters resistance, lingering below the pivotal 200-DMA of 0.8700, spotlighting downside risks.
A breach below 0.8605 could unlock further descent, targeting September lows and potentially the YTD low.
Recovery above 0.8658 may pave the way for a test of the crucial 0.8700 psychological and technical barrier.

Christian Borjon Valencia FXStreet

The EUR/GBP extended its losses to five straight trading days and hovers at around the September 28 swing low of 0.8629, amidst a risk-off impulse courtesy of the escalation of the fight between Hamas and Israel, set to extend for the fourth straight day. Therefore, the EUR/GBP edges lower by 0.05%, and exchanges hands at around 0.8635.

The daily chart portrays the pair as neutral biased, but it appears to have bottomed, as shown by price action; nevertheless, as EUR/GBP’s price action remains trading below the 200-day moving average (DMA) of 0.8700, downside risks remain. For a bearish continuation, sellers mist break below the 50-DMA at 0.8605. A breach of the latter and the 0.8600 figure would expose the September 15 daily low of 0.8569, followed by the September 5 low of 0.8523. Once those levels are cleared, up next would be the year-to-date (YTD) low of 0.8492.

Conversely, If EUR/GBP buyers reclaim the October 9 daily high at 0.8658, that would open the door to test the confluence of the figure and the 200-DMA at 0.8700. A decisive break would expose the May 3 high at 0.8834.

EUR/GBP Price Action – Daily chart

EUR/GBP Key Technicals

EUR/GBP

Overview
Today last price	0.8636
Today Daily Change	-0.0017
Today Daily Change %	-0.20
Today daily open	0.8653

Trends
Daily SMA20	0.8644
Daily SMA50	0.8606
Daily SMA100	0.8601
Daily SMA200	0.8705

Levels
Previous Daily High	0.8663
Previous Daily Low	0.8641
Previous Weekly High	0.8691
Previous Weekly Low	0.864
Previous Monthly High	0.8706
Previous Monthly Low	0.8524
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	0.8655
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	0.8649
Daily Pivot Point S1	0.8641
Daily Pivot Point S2	0.863
Daily Pivot Point S3	0.8619
Daily Pivot Point R1	0.8664
Daily Pivot Point R2	0.8675
Daily Pivot Point R3	0.8686

Author

Christian Borjon Valencia

FXStreet

Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.

AUD/USD consolidates above 0.7000; remains close to monthly top

AUD/USD holds steady above 0.7000 during the Asian session on Friday, trading just below the previous day's monthly low amid diverging forces. A hawkish RBA continues to support the Aussie, while the recent decline in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar depressed near a three-week low. However, oil-driven inflation fears reinforce Fed hike bets, which, along with geopolitical risks, could benefit the safe-haven buck and cap the currency pair.

USD/JPY bounces off one-month low; climbs to 157.00 amid reviving USD demand

USD/JPY rebounds from the 156.00 neighborhood, or a one-month low touched during Friday’s Asian session, with bulls looking to extend momentum beyond 157.00 amid the emergence of some US Dollar buying. Meanwhile, Japan's National CPI rose to a nine-month peak and reaffirmed BoJ rate-hike bets, which could support the Japanese Yen and cap gains for the currency pair.

Gold holds above $4,000/three-month low as Fed hike bets and firm USD cap upside

Gold struggles to capitalize on its modest recovery from levels below the $4,000 psychological mark, or a three-month low set earlier this Friday, and retains a bearish tone through the first half of the European session. Federal Reserve officials recently signaled there is no urgency to raise interest rates. Traders, however, are still pricing in around an 80% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs again at its December policy meeting.

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple rebound as major support levels cap recent sell-off

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple rebound modestly on Friday after correcting and testing their key support zone the previous day. BTC holds the 50-day EMA, ETH finds support around the 100-day EMA, while XRP holds the horizontal floor near $1.300. The price action of these top three cryptocurrencies suggests a recovery if this critical support zone holds; a decisive close below these levels suggests a deeper correction.

The week ahead – UK budget, Shell, BP and HSBC and NatWest results

Financial markets have undergone another turbulent week with concerns about public sector debt levels, the impact of energy policy and higher oil and gas prices, and what events in France might mean for the UK economy going forward.

What November 3 means for the Fed's rate path and the US Dollar

The USD faces a decisive period ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. While markets anticipate another interest rate increase from the Fed in December, the battle for control of Congress could reshape fiscal policy expectations and, indirectly, the path of US monetary policy in 2027.