EUR/GBP holds losses near 0.8400 following German Retail Sales, eyes on CPI data

EUR/GBP remains subdued following mixed German Retail Sales data released on Friday.
The Euro could regain its ground as trade tension eases between the United States and the European Union.
The GBP receives support after the IMF raised the UK GDP growth forecast for the current year to 1.2% from 1.1%.

Akhtar Faruqui FXStreet

EUR/GBP edges lower after registering more than 0.50% gains in the previous session, trading around 0.8420 during the Asian hours on Friday. The currency cross holds losses following the release of Germany’s Retail Sales data. Traders shift their focus to Consumer Price Index (CPI) data due later in the day.

German Retail Sales grew by 2.3% year-over-year in April, surpassing the expected 1.8% increase. The previous growth was at 3.3% (revised from a 2.2% rise). However, the monthly data showed a decline of 1.1% in April, against the expected 0.2% and the previous 0.9% gains.

However, the EUR/GBP cross surged as the Euro (EUR) received support from easing trade tension between the United States (US) and the European Union (EU). President Trump delayed the tariff deadline on imports from the EU from June 1 to July 9. Meanwhile, the Brussels also agreed to accelerate trade talks with the United States to avoid a transatlantic trade war.

On Wednesday, European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Klaas Knot said that the current European inflation outlook is murky, challenging the central bank to engage in direct moves. On Tuesday, ECB policymaker François Villeroy de Galhau noted that the “policy normalization in the Euro area is probably not complete.”

The EUR/GBP cross faces downward pressure as the Pound Sterling (GBP) attracts buyers following the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raising the United Kingdom (UK) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast for the current year to 1.2% from 1.1%.

The British Pound also draws support from fading market expectations of the Bank of England (BoE) reducing interest rates again in the June policy meeting. The dovish bets weaken surrounding the Bank of England’s (BoE) policy outlook following hotter-than-expected UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) and a robust growth in the UK Retail Sales data for April.

Economic Indicator

Retail Sales (YoY)

The Retail Sales released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland is a measure of changes in sales of the German retail sector. It shows the performance of the retail sector in the short term. Percent changes reflect the rate of changes of such sales.The changes are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. The positive economic growth anticipates "Bullish" for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative, or bearish, for the EUR.

AUD/USD stuck as the RBA talks tough into a slowdown

The Australian Dollar is going nowhere in a hurry, and the contradiction at its core explains why. The Reserve Bank of Australia keeps dangling the prospect of another hike, yet the economy it governs just expanded 0.3% in the first quarter, a clear step down from the prior pace. A central bank threatening to tighten into a visible slowdown is not a recipe for conviction in either direction, and the tape shows it.

USD/JPY: Japanese Yen coiled at the line, leaning on everyone but Japan

The Yen is doing very little, and that stasis is the whole story. USD/JPY sits glued near 160.00 not because Japan has found new strength, but because two outside forces are fighting to a draw over it: a US rate complex that keeps the dollar bid, and a Ministry of Finance that refuses to let the line break.

Gold declines below $4,500 on stalled US-Iran ceasefire talks, US NFP data looms

Gold price edges lower to near $4,470 during the early Asian session on Friday. The precious metal remains volatile amid ongoing geopolitical turmoil. Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding the US-Iran peace deal and the US May employment report later on Friday.

DeFi hack losses drop 80% from 2022 peak as security defenses improve — Immunefi

Losses from decentralized finance exploits have fallen by 80% since reaching a record high in 2022, according to a report released by Immunefi. The report, which analyzed exploit-driven losses across major blockchain ecosystems between 2020 and 2025, found that DeFi protocol losses declined from $2.62 billion in 2022 to $534 million in 2024.

Nonfarm payrolls: Testing the limits of Fed policy patience

The upcoming nonfarm payrolls report for May will provide the final update on the US labor market before Kevin Warsh attends his first policy meeting as the new Fed Chair later this month.

Recession on paper: What really moves the Canadian Loonie now?

Statistics Canada handed the headline writers a gift and the analysts a headache. Real GDP shrank 0.1% on an annualized basis in the first quarter, and with the fourth quarter of 2025 revised down to a 1.0% contraction, that is two negative quarters in a row, the textbook definition of a technical recession and Canada's first since the pandemic.