EUR/CHF to hover around the 1.09 mark by mid-year – CIBC

The safe-haven CHF is set to weaken as global recovery accelerates into mid-year. Jeremy Stretch from CIBC Capital Markets expects the EUR/CHF pair to move around the 1.09 level by the end of the second quarter.

Key quotes

“Switzerland may be witnessing a faster vaccine rollout than near neighbours, such as Italy, Germany and France, but that will not preclude the economy from seeing challenges extend into 2021, as Q1 will prove compromised by lockdown measures.” 

“The broad reflationary bias, predicated upon a return to solid global growth, boosting commodity or growth-orientated currencies, should continue to ease the job of the SNB. The national central bank remains orientated towards limiting CHF gains, to maintain export competitiveness and limit disinflationary pressures.”

“The broad reflationary bias, predicated upon a return to solid global growth, boosting commodity or growth-orientated currencies, should continue to ease the job of the SNB. The national central bank remain orientated towards limiting CHF gains, to maintain export competitiveness and limit disinflationary pressures.” 

“We do expect the Swiss currency to modestly depreciate towards the two-year (1.09) moving average versus the EUR, into mid-year.”