Denis Joeli Fatiaki
Independent Analyst
Updated S&P 500 Futures (ESM2025) Trading Plan
As of May 20 – Post-bounce off 5,904 POC → rally to 5,960
1. Key levels
Resistances 5,960 - Recent pivot/range high
5,977–5,994 - Target zone (50–61.8% Fib of May 13 gap)
Support 5,904 - POC / VWAP mid-line—reliable demand anchor
5,926.75 - 61.8% retrace of Monday's gap-up rally
5,870 - Lower channel base & May 16 swing low
2. Market context
- Bounce Confirmed: Price respected the 5,904 POC line and has reclaimed 5,926.75, validating buyers at value control.
- VWAP Alignment: The intraday VWAP band has flipped into support, reinforcing institutional demand through the morning.
- Momentum Shift: A clean break above 5,960 would trigger a bullish acceleration toward the Fibonacci cluster near 5,977–5,994.
Friday, 16 May, close of trades
Chart update Monday 20
3. Bullish play
- Re-test & Hold 5,926.75:
- Entry: Scale in long on any pullback and hold above 5,926.75 + VWAP mid.
- Targets: 5,960 → 5,977 → 5,994
- Stop: Below 5,904
- Breakout Above 5,960:
- Entry: Aggressive long on 5-min close above 5,960.
- Targets: 5,977 → 6,000 (psychological) → channel upper pitch near 6,038
- Stop: 5,940
4. Bearish play
- Failure at 5,960–5,977 Zone:
- Entry: Short on a reversal candle into that resistance band.
- Targets: 5,926.75 → 5,904 → 5,870
- Stop: Above 5,980
- Break Below 5,904 (POC):
- Entry: Short on 5-min close under 5,904.
- Targets: 5,870 → 5,845 (0% gap) → lower channel near 5,814
- Stop: 5,920
5. Execution notes
- Volume Confirmation: Favour entries when volume spikes at your entry level.
- Risk: Keep risk per trade ≤ 1% of capital.
- Alerts: There are 5,926.75, 5,904, and 5,960 alarms for swift reaction.
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