ECB: Change of view – TDS

Sandeep Kanihama FXStreet Contributor

Analysts at TD Securities suggest that in accordance with the global trend toward more cautious central bank hikes, they are revising down their expectations for ECB rate hikes, with a single 15bps hike to the depo rate in December.

Key Quotes

“We expect the ECB to then hike at a cautious pace, with 25bps hikes occurring every six months thereafter. We do not expect the ECB to introduce TLTROs should macroeconomic data recover as we expect.”

“FX: We are revising lower our EURUSD forecasts on the back of our downgraded ECB expectations. We retain a broadly constructive outlook for the pair, but we have reduced our year-end expectation to 1.24 from 1.27. Near-term risks to our view are still skewed to the downside, but we could see upside risks emerge on longer horizons.”

Author

Sandeep Kanihama

FXStreet Contributor

Sandeep Kanihama is an FX Editor and Analyst with FXstreet having principally focus area on Asia and European markets with commodity, currency and equities coverage. He is stationed in the Indian capital city of Delhi.

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