ECB: Account reveals heightened concerns about inflation – ABN AMRO


Nick Kounis, head of financial markets research at ABN AMRO, points out that the account of the ECB’s June monetary policy meeting, which was pre-Sintra, suggested that the majority of the Governing Council stands firmly behind the President.

Key Quotes

“The account notes that ‘there was broad agreement that, in the light of the heightened uncertainty, which was likely to extend further into the future, the Governing Council needed to be ready and prepared to ease the monetary policy stance further by adjusting all of its instruments, as appropriate, to achieve its price stability objective.”

“Potential measures to be considered included the possibility of further extending and strengthening the Governing Council’s forward guidance, resuming net asset purchases and decreasing policy rates’. There seemed to be particular concern about the inflation outlook. In particular, although inflation was projected to rise in coming years it ‘was still projected to reach only 1.6% in 2021, which was seen to remain some distance away from the Governing Council’s inflation aim’. Against this background it was important to prepare for ‘adverse contingencies’.”

“At the July meeting we think the Governing Council will decide to change its forward guidance on policy rates to explicitly hint at the possibility of rate cuts. In particular, it could say it expects the key ECB interest rates ‘to remain at their present levels or lower …’.”

“In September, we expect a 10bp cut in policy rates as well as a clear signal that the ECB is investigating the design of a new asset purchase programme. By December, we expect the ECB to announce a EUR 630bn QE package, to be implemented for 9 months from January 2020 at a pace of EUR 70bn per month. The second 10bp rate reduction will follow in Q1 of next year.”

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility.

Feed news

Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD: Doji on D1, 1.1040/45 resistance question latest recovery

The EUR/USD pair’s latest recovery seems to be challenged soon considering Monday’s Doji candlestick formation on D1 and nearness to the key resistance-confluence. The quote currently takes the bids to 1.1030.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD: Inside day makes Tuesday's close pivotal

GBP/USD created an inside bar candlestick pattern on Monday, making Tuesday's GMT close pivotal. An inside bar occurs when the daily high and low falls within the preceding day's trading range. The pair hit a high at 1.2650.

GBP/USD News

USD/JPY unchanged on 108 handle in Tokyo opening hour, eyes on key events

USD/JPY is steady in Tokyo's opening hour, down -0.02% despite the concerns over the 'Phase1' deal made between China and the US on Friday. Looking ahead, eyes are on US Industrial Production and Fed speakers.

USD/JPY News

Gold: Bears look for a break below the trendline support

The price had been sent lower below the 21 and 50-day MA converging and the 7th Oct lows. Trendline support guards a test of a 50% mean reversion of the late June swing lows to recent highs around 1480 will be encouraged. 

Gold News

UK jobs report preview: GBP/USD set to react to figures that go with the Brexit mood

Finding a job in the UK is more accessible than in the past and pay is rising – but that does not move the pound these days. The employment report is scheduled two days ahead of the critical EU Summit and 16 ahead of Brexit Day. 

Read more

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures