- The Dow Jones backslid around 300 points early Tuesday following a long weekend.
- Equities recovered their footing, pushing back to flat amid a lack of meaningful data.
- Latest Fed Meeting Minutes are due on Wednesday as markets watch for signs of rate cuts.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) stumbled out of the gate on Tuesday, declining around 300 points at its lowest following an extended weekend break. Equities somewhat recovered their stance through the US market session, but the Dow Jones remains down around 100 points near 44,450. Stock traders piled back into markets following the President’s Day holiday on Monday, rushing to price in headlines before realizing there wasn’t much to price in.
Another Federal Reserve (Fed) policymaker noted on Tuesday that a murky policy outlook from the Trump administration makes it difficult to nail down a timeline for when the Fed might deliver another rate cut. The Fed’s latest Meeting Minutes are slated for release on Wednesday, but the report is unlikely to sharpen guidance any further. According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, rate markets are pricing in better-than-even odds that the Fed’s next rate trim will be a 25 bps cut on July 30.
Looking ahead, the next key data print for US markets will be Friday’s upcoming global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) prints. US PMI survey results are expected to tick slightly higher for both the Manufacturing and Services components.
Dow Jones news
Despite heavy losses in key contributing equities, the Dow Jones was overall tilted into the bullish side on Tuesday. Around two-thirds of the major equity index found room in the green, but sharp contractions in UnitedHealth (UNH) and Home Depot (HD) kept the DJIA on the bearish side.
UNH tumbled 17% on Tuesday, falling below $507 per share after the company resisted calls from shareholders to investigate the true costs of the health company’s logbook of denied and delayed healthcare claims. Shareholders submitted a proposal to do a more accurate cost accounting of UNH’s denial practices, citing “public health-related costs and macroeconomic risks created by the company’s practices that limit or delay access to healthcare”.
Home Depot also shed around 7%, falling below $403 per share after investors balked at underperforming US home sales and a general lack of confidence in price stability in the face of looming tariff action from the US government.
Dow Jones price forecast
Congestion continues to plague the Dow Jones Industrial Average as the major equity index battles near-term consolidation around the 44,500 region. Price action is getting squeezed into a chopping midrange, with a technical ceiling priced in around 44,800 and an immediate floor near the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) just south of the 44,000 major price handle.
Long-term, the DJIA is holding close enough to all-time highs to keep short interest nervous. The Dow Jones has trended above the 200-day EMA for 15 consecutive months, and is still holding onto gains of 4.7% from the start of the year.
Dow Jones daily chart
Economic Indicator
FOMC Minutes
FOMC stands for The Federal Open Market Committee that organizes 8 meetings in a year and reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. FOMC Minutes are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and are a clear guide to the future US interest rate policy.
Read more.Next release: Wed Feb 19, 2025 19:00
Frequency: Irregular
Consensus: -
Previous: -
Source: Federal Reserve
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is usually published three weeks after the day of the policy decision. Investors look for clues regarding the policy outlook in this publication alongside the vote split. A bullish tone is likely to provide a boost to the greenback while a dovish stance is seen as USD-negative. It needs to be noted that the market reaction to FOMC Minutes could be delayed as news outlets don’t have access to the publication before the release, unlike the FOMC’s Policy Statement.
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