CZK: CNB governor to repeat usual hawkish message – ING

In the Czech Republic, the government yesterday approved the state budget for next year, as expected, which we estimate should lead to a public deficit of 1.9% from this year's 2.4% of GDP, ING’s Frantisek Taborsky notes.

Current levels in the 25.150-200 range seem

“Third quarter wage data will be released today, which we estimate rose by 4.0% YoY in real terms, similar to the previous quarter. The central bank forecast 3.6% in November. Speaking of the Czech National Bank, the governor is also scheduled to speak at a local conference today, which could give us a hint on the December decision, which remains unclear. However, we usually get a hawkish message from the governor, which could again support the CZK.”

“EUR/CZK quickly broke below 25.200, a level we have mentioned here in previous days, and current levels in the 25.150-200 range seem fair to us. If the governor makes it clear today that a pause in December is the more likely scenario, EUR/CZK could test 25.100. Similar to PLN, we see tactical gains here but more weakness later due to geopolitical reasons.”