Analysts at Standard Chartered came out with the three possible coronavirus scenarios and their Forex implications while mentioning “Our subjective assessment is that current asset market pricing probably lies somewhat closer to the static than good scenarios.”
FX winners (W) and losers (L) under our good scenario where the disease abates:
W: CAD, CNY, MXN, KRW, IDR, RUB
L: USD, CHF, JPY
FX winners (W) and losers (L) under our static scenario of neither major intensification nor elimination:
W: USD, JPY, CHF, MXN
L: KRW, TWD, THB, SGD, MYR, AUD, NZD, EUR, CNY, CAD
FX winners (W) and losers (L) under our bad scenario where the disease intensifies and spreads:
W: JPY, USD
L: KRW, TWD, THB, SGD, MYR, IDR, INR, AUD, NZD, EUR, CNY, CAD
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