Copper price falls below $9,000 despite increasing scarcity of copper concentrate – Commerzbank

The strong US Dollar (USD) continues to weigh on metal prices. Copper slipped below the $9,000 per ton mark this week, Commerzbank’s commodity analyst Volkmar Baur notes.

Copper price can fall towards $8,500

“According to a survey of participants at a major copper conference in Asia, the price could even fall to $8,500 per ton in the first quarter of 2025. However, there are also many critical voices pointing to the scarcity of copper concentrate, which is slowing down production. One analyst puts next year's deficit at over 1 million tons.”

“The capacities of Chinese copper smelters, which are expected to increase by a further 1 million tons next year, are likely to be utilized at only 75%. A slowdown in activity is also becoming apparent at the current margin. A company specializing in satellite observation reports that the proportion of inactive Chinese copper smelters has risen by almost 5 percentage points to 15.5%.”

“This means that capacity utilization is likely to be as low as in April, when smelting was restricted by maintenance work. Official data on Chinese copper production will probably be released in the next few days. The data published today on industrial production did not yet include these details.”