China: Upside surprise in commodity imports and trade data - TDS


According to analysts at TD Securities Chinese commodity imports and trade data has received an unusual boost from the New Year holidays as the numbers surprised to the upside.

Key Quotes

“Strong trade data could help quell growth related demand concerns, just as the market is becoming more optimistic on a potential trade deal. Indeed, unwrought copper imports jumped 11.4% and concentrate ore imports surged 29.8% on the month.”

“These numbers are likely bloated amid the lower December numbers and holiday impacts, but nonetheless they remain positive YoY which bodes well for demand remaining fairly robust amid global growth concerns. With that said, we do caution that the recent rally may be running out of steam as any material trade deal still appears far off.”

“Tariffs or no tariffs, Chinese aluminum continues to flood the market as exports reached new record highs in January.”

“Chinese crude imports eased off last month's all-time high as teapots received smaller quotas for 2019, but remain strong as refiners built stockpiles heading into the Lunar New Year.”

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