Michael Loo, Research Analyst at Nomura, expects Chinese export and import growth to fall sharply in November, partially due to a high base last year, culminating in a smaller November trade surplus.
“PPI inflation should moderate as indicated by the falling output price sub-index of the official PMI, and also partially reflecting a base effect, while CPI inflation should edge down slightly, as suggested by high-frequency food-price data. Headline FX reserves likely rose by USD17.6bn to USD3.1268trn in November. After adjusting for FX and coupon effects, we estimate a fall of USD15.0bn, from an increase of USD10.6bn in October.”
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