China: Economic stability continued but Trump poses downside risks to the outlook - NAB
Gerard Burg, Senior Economist at NAB, suggests that the unexpected election of Donald Trump as the next United States President provides greater downside risk to NABs China forecasts – however the uncertainty around policy means that for now they are unchanged (6.5% growth in 2017, 6.25% in 2018).
Key Quotes
“It is too early to know if election rhetoric will translate into policy. The proposal during the campaign to impose a 45% tariff on all Chinese imports to the United States would have a significant impact on China’s economy – but would also negatively impact the US.”
“China’s industrial production growth was unchanged in October – increasing by 6.1% yoy. Construction related industries – steel and cement – recorded stable growth.”
“China’s trade surplus widened slightly in October – to US$49.1 billion. In monthly terms, both imports and exports were considerably weaker – however this largely reflected the impact of the Golden Week holidays at the start of the month.”
“Retail sales growth was weaker in October, increasing by 10.0% yoy (down from 10.7% in September). Given the strengthening in inflation this month, real retail sales fell from around 9.5% yoy to an estimated 8.9% – the slowest rate of growth since August 2004.”
“Headline inflation accelerated in October – with the Consumer Price Index increasing by 2.1% yoy. Producer prices rose comparatively strongly in October – rising by 1.2% yoy – the largest increase since December 2011.”
Author
Sandeep Kanihama
FXStreet Contributor
Sandeep Kanihama is an FX Editor and Analyst with FXstreet having principally focus area on Asia and European markets with commodity, currency and equities coverage. He is stationed in the Indian capital city of Delhi.
