According to analysts at Standard Chartered, financial-market stability and deleveraging are taking centre stage in China’s policy making and they do not expect regulatory tightening to ease in the foreseeable future, but the pace of further tightening may be adjusted to avoid a material market disruption.
Key Quotes
“The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) will likely monitor interbank liquidity conditions more carefully near-term; however, the cost of funding of central bank liquidity injections may rise further. We expect the PBoC to hike key money market rates again in June following a potential Fed rate hike, to support FX markets.”
“Interbank liquidity conditions will likely be challenging in June on the quarter-end effect, the macro-prudential assessment (MPA) and self-check deadlines set by the banking regulator. The excess reserve ratio, which was 1.3% at end-Q1-2017, also indicates tight liquidity ahead. The ratio is at its lowest since Q2-2011 and much below 2.1% recorded during the mid-2013 liquidity crunch.”
“We expect the average 7-day repo fixing to rise to 3.8-3.9% in June from 3.5% so far in May and 3.3% in April. We see the 10Y CGB yield peaking at 3.8-3.9% in the coming months before declining to 3.4-3.5% in H2-2017. The bid-to-cover ratio of recent China Government Bond (CGB) primary auctions has slid to a two-year low; we expect primary demand to stay weak and further pressure the secondary market. We recommend paying repo IRS on dips in the near term and preparing for potential bottom-fishing opportunities in cash bonds on a further increase in yields.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD flirts with 1.0700 post-US PMIs
EUR/USD maintains its daily gains and climbs to fresh highs near the 1.0700 mark against the backdrop of the resumption of the selling pressure in the Greenback, in the wake of weaker-than-expected flash US PMIs for the month of April.
GBP/USD surpasses 1.2400 on further Dollar selling
Persistent bearish tone in the US Dollar lends support to the broad risk complex and bolsters the recovery in GBP/USD, which manages well to rise to fresh highs north of 1.2400 the figure post-US PMIs.
Gold trims losses on disappointing US PMIs
Gold (XAU/USD) reclaims part of the ground lost and pares initial losses on the back of further weakness in the Greenback following disheartening US PMIs prints.
Here’s why Ondo price hit new ATH amid bearish market outlook Premium
Ondo price shows no signs of slowing down after setting up an all-time high (ATH) at $1.05 on March 31. This development is likely to be followed by a correction and ATH but not necessarily in that order.
Germany’s economic come back
Germany is the sick man of Europe no more. Thanks to its service sector, it now appears that it will exit recession, and the economic future could be bright. The PMI data for April surprised on the upside for Germany, led by the service sector.