Jane Foley, senior FX strategist at Rabobank, points out that the CHF is the best performing G10 currency on a 1 day view as SNB President Jordon appeared to stop short of market expectations regarding dovish policy commitments at this morning’s press conference.

Key Quotes

“The pledge to maintain the same level of policy accommodation comes at a time when investors are speculating about the likelihood of further policy accommodation from several other major central banks. That said, the degree of policy accommodation in Switzerland is already significant and, unlike other G10 central banks, the SNB maintains a commitment to intervene in the FX market “as necessary”.”

“The big change announced in today’s press conference was the announcement about the central bank’s transition from Libor to a new Policy Rate focused on SARON, an overnight rate.  That said, in itself, the change should not have significant implications for the outlook for the CHF.”

“Going forward Jordon has confirmed that the central bank will ensure that secured short term money market rates are kept close to the new Policy rate.  Also interest rates that banks pay on their sight deposits will correspond to the SNB policy rate, currently at -0.75%.”

“In terms of the outlook for policy, Jordon’s speech today lacked the dovish quality obvious in comments of some other G10 central bankers.”

“In tune with Jordon’s balanced outlook he referred to CHF as ‘highly valued’. This is a far less charged choice of words than ‘overvalued’.  On many academic measures of fair value the CHF is overvalued against a long list of other currencies. The SNB’s response is to use FX intervention as a policy tool.  However, this goes against the commitment of the larger G7 nations who have pledged for years to allow markets to set exchange rates.”

“Going forward we see little chance that the SNB will relax its commitment to extremely loose policy settings. While this has had some success in undermining the safe haven credentials of the CHF, the currency is set to remain particularly prone to buying pressure in period of heightened risk aversion in the Eurozone.  Given slowing global growth we expect EUR/CHF to edge lower towards the 1.10 level on a 12 mth view.”

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility.

Feed news

Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD pressured around 1.1200 amid dovish ECB comments

EUR/USD is trading around 1.1200 after ECB officials expressed concern about global growth President Draghi will speak later. Tension is rising toward the Fed decision after US retail sales surprised on Friday.


GBP/USD pressured below 1.2600, Conservative contest in focus

GBP/USD is trading below 1.2600, consolidating the losses seen on Friday after US retail sales beat expectations. The Conservative contest is heating up ahead of tomorrow's second vote.


USD/JPY: wait-and-see continues ahead of Fed

The dollar consolidates its gains against most rival, and scarce data exacerbates the quietness. USD/JPY bullish above 108.90, bearish below 108.10.


Gold: 100-month MA is a level to beat for the bulls

Gold (XAU/USD) is struggling to cut through key technical line which proved a tough nut to crack in 2018. The yellow metal rose to $1,358 on Friday, but the break above the 100-month MA.

Gold News

Gold: Signs of bullish exhaustion ahead of the Fed

Gold's rally seems to have run its course with signs of bullish exhaustion emerging on technical charts ahead of Wednesday's FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) rate decision.

Read more