CFR's Brad Sester: The phase-one of US-China deal has nothing for US manufacturing

A potential phase-one trade agreement between the US and China will have nothing for the US manufacturing sector, Brad Sester, American economist and former staff economist at the United States Department of the Treasury and senior fellow for international economics at the Council on Foreign Relations tweeted during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday.

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China has already resumed its purchases of US ag.   The Sept trade data (out tomorrow) will likely make this even clearer.  It needs the pork.  And I suspect it needs some US beans too (Brazil cannot meet 2ys demand).

The "bigger" the phase 1 deal, the lower the odds there will be a phase 2.   China has always been willing to raise its purchases of U.S. ag (and allow more U.S. financial service firms to take majority stakes in their JVs).  It doesn't obviously have more large gives

The deal that is shaping up (more Chinese ag purchases, perhaps some structural liberalization for meat, more opportunities for U.S. financial services firms to invest in China, Chinese promises of stronger IP protection) has basically nothing for U.S. based manufacturing ...