USD/CAD battles around the 1.3600 figure, after solid Canadian GDP overshadows US JOLTs data

• The USD/CAD pair teetered around the 1.3600 figure after the Canadian GDP Q1 results exceeded estimates, prompting anticipations of BoC policy tightening.
• The US labor market reported an unexpected surge in job openings (JOLTs), supporting the case for additional interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve.
• Crude oil’s declining prices and a resilient US Dollar Index supported the greenback, offsetting the pressure from solid Canadian economic performance.

USD/CAD climbs for two straight days, though reclaiming the 1.3600 figure after solid Canadian economic data increased the odds for further tightening by the Bank of Canada (BoC). Nevertheless, recent data in the United States (US), alongside a risk-off impulse, cushioned the pair’s fall and trades at 1.3584, down by 0.10%.

Canada’s economy growing faster than estimates, takes a potential rate hike back into the table for the BoC

Statistics Canada reported that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter (Q1) rose above estimates, accelerating further in April, according to data. The Canadian economy expanded by 3.1% YoY, smashing 2.5% estimates, and month-over-month (MoM) in March stood at 0%, against the above forecasts—the preliminary figure for April stood at 0.2%.

After the data was released, the USD/CAD tumbled from around 1.3640 toward 1.3606 before data from the US sponsored a short-lived recovery.

In the US, the April job openings report, known as JOLTs, unexpectedly soared to its highest level in three months, justifying the need for additional interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Vacancies grew to 10.1M, above estimates of 9.375M, and posted more than 300K compared to March. Although it cushioned the USD/CAD fall and reclaimed 1.3600, the pair extended its losses below the latter.

The greenback stood afloat as falling crude oil prices threw a lifeline, as it extended its losses by 1.32%, with the US crude oil benchmark, WTI exchanging hands at $68.53 per barrel.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck’s value vs. a basket of six peers, stands at 0.48%, up at 104.557, bolstered by recently released jobs data and increasing odds for another rate hike in June. The CME FedWatch Tool’s chances for an increase lie at 69.8%, above yesterday’s 66.6%.

USD/CAD Price Analysis: Technical outlook

From a technical perspective, the USD/CAD persists upward biased, despite the ongoing pullback, with sellers eyeing a test of the weekly low of 1.3567. Further deep beneath that level will immediately expose the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3542, followed by the 50-day EMA at 1.3530. Conversely, if USD/CAD buyers reclaim 1.3600, that will exacerbate a continuation of the ongoing rally, but a decisive break above the weekly high of 1.3651 is needed to challenge 1.3700.