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USD/CAD battles around the 1.3600 figure, after solid Canadian GDP overshadows US JOLTs data

  • The USD/CAD pair teetered around the 1.3600 figure after the Canadian GDP Q1 results exceeded estimates, prompting anticipations of BoC policy tightening.
  • The US labor market reported an unexpected surge in job openings (JOLTs), supporting the case for additional interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve.
  • Crude oil’s declining prices and a resilient US Dollar Index supported the greenback, offsetting the pressure from solid Canadian economic performance.

USD/CAD climbs for two straight days, though reclaiming the 1.3600 figure after solid Canadian economic data increased the odds for further tightening by the Bank of Canada (BoC). Nevertheless, recent data in the United States (US), alongside a risk-off impulse, cushioned the pair’s fall and trades at 1.3584, down by 0.10%.

Canada’s economy growing faster than estimates, takes a potential rate hike back into the table for the BoC

Statistics Canada reported that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter (Q1) rose above estimates, accelerating further in April, according to data. The Canadian economy expanded by 3.1% YoY, smashing 2.5% estimates, and month-over-month (MoM) in March stood at 0%, against the above forecasts—the preliminary figure for April stood at 0.2%.

After the data was released, the USD/CAD tumbled from around 1.3640 toward 1.3606 before data from the US sponsored a short-lived recovery.

In the US, the April job openings report, known as JOLTs, unexpectedly soared to its highest level in three months, justifying the need for additional interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Vacancies grew to 10.1M, above estimates of 9.375M, and posted more than 300K compared to March. Although it cushioned the USD/CAD fall and reclaimed 1.3600, the pair extended its losses below the latter.

The greenback stood afloat as falling crude oil prices threw a lifeline, as it extended its losses by 1.32%, with the US crude oil benchmark, WTI exchanging hands at $68.53 per barrel.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck’s value vs. a basket of six peers, stands at 0.48%, up at 104.557, bolstered by recently released jobs data and increasing odds for another rate hike in June. The CME FedWatch Tool’s chances for an increase lie at 69.8%, above yesterday’s 66.6%.

USD/CAD Price Analysis: Technical outlook

USD/CAD Daily chart

From a technical perspective, the USD/CAD persists upward biased, despite the ongoing pullback, with sellers eyeing a test of the weekly low of 1.3567. Further deep beneath that level will immediately expose the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3542, followed by the 50-day EMA at 1.3530. Conversely, if USD/CAD buyers reclaim 1.3600, that will exacerbate a continuation of the ongoing rally, but a decisive break above the weekly high of 1.3651 is needed to challenge 1.3700.

USD/CAD

Overview
Today last price1.3596
Today Daily Change-0.0006
Today Daily Change %-0.04
Today daily open1.3602
 
Trends
Daily SMA201.3509
Daily SMA501.3521
Daily SMA1001.3515
Daily SMA2001.3499
 
Levels
Previous Daily High1.3613
Previous Daily Low1.3567
Previous Weekly High1.3655
Previous Weekly Low1.3485
Previous Monthly High1.3668
Previous Monthly Low1.3301
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%1.3596
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%1.3585
Daily Pivot Point S11.3575
Daily Pivot Point S21.3548
Daily Pivot Point S31.3529
Daily Pivot Point R11.3621
Daily Pivot Point R21.364
Daily Pivot Point R31.3667

Author

Christian Borjon Valencia

Christian Borjon began his career as a retail trader in 2010, mainly focused on technical analysis and strategies around it. He started as a swing trader, as he used to work in another industry unrelated to the financial markets.

More from Christian Borjon Valencia
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