A very weak report is well-anticipated at this point and economists at TD Securities expect the Canadian GDP to contract by 12% MoM versus the market consensus of a 12.2% contraction. USD/CAD might be more sensitive to an upside surprise.
“Industry-level GDP will confirm another historic contraction in April with output expected to fall 12% MoM for an 18% drop from February, slightly worse than flash estimates from Statistics Canada. We expect a fairly even performance across goods and services and there are few industries where we see any scope for higher output.”
“We think the CAD might demonstrate more sensitivity on an upside surprise. Overall however, we think USD/CAD has put in good work to form a base around 1.35. Meanwhile, the 1.3680/3730 air pocket will be a crucial pivot zone that will pave the way to further topside if it does not hold near-term. Our bias in the coming weeks leans that way.”
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