Canadian Dollar falls back into seven-month lows as growth risks weigh on BoC
- The Canadian Dollar is falling back for the second day in a row as markets shy away from risk.
- BoC sees a period of negative growth over the horizon.
- Despite a weakening economy, BoC is hampered on policy by increasing inflation risks.
- USD/CAD reaches seven-month high on Wednesday.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is down once again on Wednesday, adding to yesterday’s declines and sending the USD/CAD back into the 1.2800 handle as the Bank of Canada (BoC) holds rates steady as markets broadly expected.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) held its main reference rate at 5.0% Wednesday morning like Wall Street broadly predicted, but dovish comments from BoC Governor Tiff Macklem are failing to spark much confidence in the Loonie.
The BoC is expecting “two or three quarters” of negative growth as a recession looms over the Canadian economy, with Governor Macklem specifically noting that odds of achieving a soft landing are beginning to decrease.
Broad-market risk aversion is the name of the game as Tuesday’s risk-off flows continue for a second day, sending the US Dollar (USD) higher. Crude Oil prices, however, are finding a floor for Wednesday, helping to limit losses for the oil-backed CAD.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Canadian Dollar knocking back as investors favor Dollar Index, BoC fails to inspire
- BoC to maintain policy rates for the time being, period of negative growth expected.
- BoC Governor Macklem warns that too much government spending will not help curtail inflation.
- The gap is closing on achieving a soft landing, according to BoC.
- Despite risks, BoC doesn’t see a “deep recession” yet.
- Crude Oil prices are strung in the middle, helping to backstop the Loonie slide.
- Middle East geopolitical tensions keeping barrels well-bid, despite a surprise build-up of US Crude Oil reserves.
- Energy Information Administration (EIA) barrel counts recorded an unexpected 1.371M rebound in US oil stocks.
- The USD/CAD is set to spend the rest of the week reacting to US economic data. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) figures are still on the cards for Thursday and Friday, respectively.
- Tiff Macklem speaks on policy outlook after BoC leaves policy rate unchanged at 5%
Technical Analysis: USD/CAD teases 1.3810, pinned to the high side for Wednesday
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is extending the week’s risk-off backslide as traders return toward the US Dollar (USD), with the BoC’s showing briefly sending the USD/CAD into 1.3810 on reaction.
The Loonie-Dollar pairing is treading water just beneath the 1.3800 handle, and Tuesday’s topside push extends yesterday’s rebound from the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA). USD/CAD has hit a fresh seven-month high.
On the daily candlesticks, USD/CAD continues to push higher, bolstered by a rising 50-day SMA pushing into 1.3600 on the chart paper. The floor on any bearish corrections is priced in from the 200-day SMA near 1.3475.
The immediate ceiling on a bullish continuation sits at early March’s peak of 1.3861, and a break of this level would set a new high for the year on the USD/CAD as the Loonie waffles.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar?
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar?
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar?
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar?
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar?
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
Author
Joshua Gibson
FXStreet
Joshua joins the FXStreet team as an Economics and Finance double major from Vancouver Island University with twelve years' experience as an independent trader focusing on technical analysis.
