Canada: Q3 GDP headline comes as a disappointment, still way better than what was expected months ago – NFB

Data released on Tuesday showed that Canada’s real GDP rose at an annualized rate of 40.5% during the third quarter, below expectations. Analysts at the National Bank of Canada point out it is the strongest on record quarterly print followed the worst performance since data recording in Q2.

Key Quotes:

“We now have the full picture of the first quarter of recovery following the atypical downturn caused by the pandemic. While the headline for Q3 comes as a disappointment (monthly GDP was suggesting a stronger rebound), it remains way better than what was expected just a couple of months ago.”

“Back in July, economists called for a +31% annualized gain. In other words, this has been an impressive recovery so far.”

“While consumption in services continue to be negatively impacted by social distancing measures, goods spending stood at a record high in Q3.”

“We expect the recovery to experience a marked slowdown in November and December thanks to surging COVID-19 caseloads and the reintroduction of social distancing measures by some provincial governments. That said, the federal government’s fall economic statement reiterated the strong willingness to support households and business during this pandemic.”