Canada: Key economic data ahead - HSBC

Analysts at HSBC present a list of key macro events due on the cards from Canada later today at 1330 GMT.

Key Quotes:

“CPI: We look for consumer prices to decline by 0.1% in October. Typically, prices are unchanged on a m-o-m basis. However, we expect a decline in gasoline prices to tip the balance toward a small drop in prices overall, and more than offset another anticipated increase in mortgage interest costs. Since November 2017, mortgage interest costs have increased by an average 0.6% per month, boosting the year-on-year rate of increase from 0.6% to the current 6.4%. With the small drop in total CPI in the month, we expect the annual rate of increase of consumer prices to fall to 2.0% from the prior 2.2%.

Retail sales: We look for retail sales to be unchanged in September, but sales excluding autos to rise by 0.1%. We expect auto sales to decline by 0.4% in the month. This drop would follow the first increase in auto sales in the three months in August. Given that consumer goods prices were little changed in the month, we also expect the change in retail prices to be small. Hence, the changes in retail sales in the month will largely be in real terms.”