CAD up marginally vs. USD – Scotiabank

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is up marginally against the US Dollar (USD) but underperforming most of the G10 currencies in generally quiet trade, its modest strength hinting to a renewed recovery echoing similar attempts observed in early and mid/late August, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.

CAD underperforms on crosses into Wednesday’s BoC

"This week’s domestic calendar is heavy, with the highlight being Wednesday’s BoC where the central bank is widely expected to deliver a 25bpt cut. This is a non-MPR meeting, meaning that there will be no forecast update. We remain CAD bulls on the basis of the outlook for relative central bank policy given that the BoC is much closer to its neutral rate—relative to the Fed."

"For Monday we look to the release of manufacturing sales ahead of Tuesday’s CPI. We’ll also receive international securities transactions data on Wednesday, and retail sales on Friday. Our USD/CAD FV estimate is currently at 1.3638 and a narrower estimate based solely on 2Y US-Canada yield spreads is at 1.3952."

"The RSI reveals neutral momentum just above the 50 level as we note the third attempt at a bearish reversal following similar moves in early August and mid/late August. We look to a potential extension of this reversal toward the 50 day MA (1.3770) trend level and look to a near-term range bound between 1.3780 support and 1.3880 resistance."

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

GBP/USD flirts with weekly highs in the Fed's aftermath

GBP/USD reversed early losses following the Federal Reserve decision to keep rates on hold and neared the 1.3360 level before shedding some ground. Focus shifts to Governor Kevin Warsh's speech, while the Bank of England will announce its monetary policy decision on Thursday.

EUR/USD extends rally pass 1.1450 on Fed's Warsh

EUR/USD trades at fresh weekly highs above 1.1450, following the Federal Reserve monetary policy decision to keep interest rates on hold. The statement showed policymakers remain confident in economic progress while blaming inflation on energy prices. The divided vote among officials put in doubt a September hike, leading to sharp US Dollar losses.

Gold hovers around $4,100 as Fed decision hits the USD

Gold surged following the Federal Reserve's decision to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. Policymakers noted that inflation remains elevated and that economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty, spurring doubts about a rate hike in September. XAU/USD peaked above $4,100, now battling to retain the level.

No soft target: Warsh vows to return inflation to 2%

The Fed left interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, but the decision carried a distinctly hawkish edge as three officials voted for an immediate 25-basis-point increase. Chair Kevin Warsh reinforced that message, insisting there was no tolerance for a softer inflation target and warning that the Fed would not hesitate to act.

How the CLARITY Act unlocks Wall Street’s tokenization pipeline

The United States (US) Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY Act), awaiting a full Senate floor vote, promises to unlock Wall Street’s potential to tokenize financial assets, including equities, US Treasuries, private credit, real estate and commodities at a scale that could supercharge the real-world asset (RWA) market from the current $17 billion level to $5.5 trillion by 2030, according to

US Dollar mid-year outlook: Exceptional currency, exceptional risks?

The US Dollar enters the second half of 2026 in a markedly different position from a year ago. The King currency has recovered, reflecting persistent US inflation, changing expectations for Fed policy, geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for defensive assets.