CAD steady but trade tensions weigh – Scotiabank

There is no relenting in the still developing pressure on the Canadian Dollar (CAD). Spot is holding close to recent peaks amid mounting concerns facing Canada from the trade policy perspective, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.  

Macklem comments at 15.20ET

“Those worries are keeping the USD well-supported at levels that are starting to stretch the CAD’s deviation from our fair value estimate (1.4144 today) but that deviation is all but certain to grow further unless US/Canada trade tensions ease.”

“Finance Minister Freeland will deliver the fall economic update this afternoon which may show the government slipping from its fiscal commitments. BoC Governor Macklem speaks in Vancouver this afternoon (comments drop at 15.20ET).”

“USD/CAD continues to pressure resistance in the low/mid 1.42s and there is scant sign of the strong bull trend relenting. Technically, gains to minor resistance at 1.4350 and a retest of 1.4668 are likely in the short and medium term respectively. Solid bull trend momentum means USD dips will remain well supported—to the low mid-1.41s initially and certainly closer to 1.3950/1.40 for now.”