CAD is down ‘only’ 0.3% vs. USD and a relative outperformer – Scotiabank

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is weak, down 0.3% vs. the US Dollar (USD) but a relative outperformer against all of the G10 currencies with the CAD’s peer currencies showing much greater declines in response to the US/China trade détente, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Markets focus on spreads

"Fundamentals are shifting against the CAD, with a continued widening in US-Canada yield spreads as markets pare back their expectations for Fed easing. Our FV estimate for USDCAD has climbed to 1.3922 and the estimate is likely to show further gains as trading in Canadian bonds gets underway."

"For the CAD, near-term movement is likely to continue to be driven by broader developments and the market’s tone. The recovery in spread correlations is notable and reflects a clear return to fundamentally-driven movement in the CAD. Domestically, this week’s release calendar is limited to building permits, housing starts, and manufacturing sales data toward the end of the week."

"USD/CAD has climbed to fresh local highs with a clear break of the prior range high around 1.3900. The September-February rally continues to frame the important technical levels to watch, and the break of the 61.8% retracement (1.3944) now shifts our focus to the midpoint of the range just above 1.4100. The RSI has broken above 50, into bullish territory, and is confirming the moves in spot. For support, we look to the 1.3900-1.3850 area."

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

AUD/USD stays bid above 0.7100 on Australian trade data, Mideast optimism

AUD/USD clings to minor recovery gains above 0.7100 in the Asian session on Thursday as a new Israel-Lebanon ceasefire keeps a lid on the safe-haven US Dollar. Meanwhile, strong AustralianTrade Balane data also help the Aussie pair sustain the bounce from weekly lows.

USD/JPY hovers near the 160.00 intervention threshold on Mideast tensions

USD/JPY struggles to find acceptance above 160.00 and retreats from a one-month high in the Asian session on Thursday amid fears that authorities will step in again to prop up the Japanese Yen. Furthermore, a new Israel-Lebanon ceasefire caps the US Dollar and supports the currency pair. However, renewed US-Iran tensions keep the downside limited in the Greenback and the pair.

Gold rebounds from one-week low as Israel-Lebanon truce pressures safe-haven USD

Gold gains some positive traction on Thursday and climbs to the $4,475 area during the Asian session, reversing a major part of the previous day's slide to a one-week low. The Israel-Lebanon truce prompts some profit-taking around the US Dollar and supports the commodity.

Ethereum: Long-term holders' capitulation drives ETH below $1,800

Ethereum has fallen below $1,800 on Wednesday, the first time since May 2025 following accelerated spot selling pressure and distributions from long-term holders. The Age Consumed metric, which tracks the movement of previously idle tokens or long-term holders' coins, spiked over the past two days as prices declined, indicating increased selling activity among this cohort.

Kevin Warsh takes the Fed helm: What it means for the US Dollar

The Federal Reserve moves away from the highly predictable "forward guidance" model of the Jerome Powell era to a new “Kevin Warsh environment”, characterized by less communication, more policy surprises, and an increased focus on the Fed's complex balance sheet.

Recession on paper: What really moves the Canadian Loonie now?

Statistics Canada handed the headline writers a gift and the analysts a headache. Real GDP shrank 0.1% on an annualized basis in the first quarter, and with the fourth quarter of 2025 revised down to a 1.0% contraction, that is two negative quarters in a row, the textbook definition of a technical recession and Canada's first since the pandemic.