|

CAD: CPI today ahead of tomorrow's BoC – ING

The CPI print in Canada this afternoon can swing expectations for tomorrow’s Bank of Canada meeting, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

USD/CAD can continue to trade below 1.40 for now

"Consensus is for a tick higher in March inflation, both on the headline (from 2.6% to 2.7%) and core measures (median and trim rising to 3.0%). If inflation doesn’t surprise on the downside, markets may consolidate the marginally prevalent view that the BoC will stay on hold tomorrow, which is also our call."

"Still, the BoC and Canadian inflation should remain a secondary driver to global equities and the USD’s confidence crisis for USD/CAD. We estimate USD/CAD is trading 2% below its short-term fair value. That is entirely in line with the idiosyncratic risk premium on the USD due to recent turmoil in US markets."

"As discussed above, we don’t think there will be a rapid unwinding of that risk premium, so USD/CAD can continue to trade below 1.40 for now. A hold by the BoC would help sustain CAD gains, even if it won’t be a game changer."

(This story was corrected on April 15 at 10:10 GMT to say "ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes" instead of "OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note")

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

More from FXStreet Insights Team
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD bounces toward 1.1750 as US Dollar loses strength

EUR/USD returned to the 1.1750 price zone in the American session on Friday, despite falling Wall Street, which indicates risk aversion. Trading conditions remain thin following the New Year holiday and ahead of the weekend, with the focus shifting to US employment and European data scheduled for next week.

GBP/USD nears 1.3500, holds within familiar levels

After testing 1.3400 on the last day of 2025, GBP/USD managed to stage a rebound. Nevertheless, the pair finds it difficult to gather momentum and trades with modest intraday gains at around 1.3490 as market participants remain in holiday mood.

Gold trims intraday gains, approaches $4,300

Gold retreated sharply from the $4,400  area and trades flat for the day in the $4,320 price zone. Choppy trading conditions exacerbated the intraday decline, although XAU/USD bearish case is out of the picture, considering growing expectations for a dovish Fed and persistent geopolitical tensions.

Cardano gains early New Year momentum, bulls target falling wedge breakout

Cardano kicks off the New Year on a positive note and is extending gains, trading above $0.36 at the time of writing on Friday. Improving on-chain and derivatives data point to growing bullish interest, while the technical outlook keeps an upside breakout in focus.

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is.  Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets (RWA).