|

CAD: CPI today ahead of tomorrow's BoC – ING

The CPI print in Canada this afternoon can swing expectations for tomorrow’s Bank of Canada meeting, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

USD/CAD can continue to trade below 1.40 for now

"Consensus is for a tick higher in March inflation, both on the headline (from 2.6% to 2.7%) and core measures (median and trim rising to 3.0%). If inflation doesn’t surprise on the downside, markets may consolidate the marginally prevalent view that the BoC will stay on hold tomorrow, which is also our call."

"Still, the BoC and Canadian inflation should remain a secondary driver to global equities and the USD’s confidence crisis for USD/CAD. We estimate USD/CAD is trading 2% below its short-term fair value. That is entirely in line with the idiosyncratic risk premium on the USD due to recent turmoil in US markets."

"As discussed above, we don’t think there will be a rapid unwinding of that risk premium, so USD/CAD can continue to trade below 1.40 for now. A hold by the BoC would help sustain CAD gains, even if it won’t be a game changer."

(This story was corrected on April 15 at 10:10 GMT to say "ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes" instead of "OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note")

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

More from FXStreet Insights Team
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD posts modest gains above 1.1700 as ECB signals pause

The EUR/USD pair posts modest gains around 1.1710 during the early Asian session on Monday. The Euro strengthens against the Greenback after the European Central Bank left its policy rates unchanged and took a more positive view on the Eurozone economy, which has shown resilience to global trade shocks. Financial markets are likely to remain subdued as traders book profits ahead of the long holiday period.

GBP/USD steadies below 1.3400 as traders assess BoE policy outlook

Following Thursday's volatile session, GBP/USD moves sideways below 1.3400 on Friday. Investors reassess the Bank of England's policy oıtlook after the MPC decided to cut the interest rate by 25 bps by a slim margin. Meanwhile, the improving risk mood helps the pair hold its ground.

Gold advances above $4,350 amid renewed geopolitical tensions

Gold is rising back above $4,350 early Monday, helped by renewed geopolitical tensions. Israel-Iran conflict and US-Venezuela headlines drive investors toward the traditional store of value, Gold. 

Week ahead: Key risks to watch in last days of 2025 and early 2026

The festive period officially starts next week, with many traders vacating their desks until the first full week of January, making way for thin trading volumes and very few top-tier releases.

How much can one month of soft inflation change the Fed’s mind?

One month of softer inflation data is rarely enough to shift Federal Reserve policy on its own, but in a market highly sensitive to every data point, even a single reading can reshape expectations. November’s inflation report offered a welcome sign of cooling price pressures. 

XRP rebounds amid ETF inflows and declining retail demand demand

XRP rebounds as bulls target a short-term breakout above $2.00 on Friday. XRP ETFs record the highest inflow since December 8, signaling growing institutional appetite.