Brexit: The longer it takes, the more the uncertainty festers - BBH

Research Team at BBH, suggests that the UK choice to leave the EU on a 52%-48% vote is one of those moments that define before and after.

Key Quotes

“Efforts for another referendum or a Scottish or Welsh veto do not seem to be the path forward. 

When should the UK invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, which formally begins the divorce negotiations?  The longer it takes, the more the uncertainty festers.

At first, Cameron has suggested an early decision. Ironically, the leaders of the Brexit movement are in no hurry.  After the results, Cameron announced two things.  First, that he would resign by October.  Second, that he would not invoke Article 50, but would leave it to his successor. 

With victory in hand, the Leave camp is in disarray.  The Leave camp seems as surprised as anyone with the results.  UKIP's Farage's seemingly concession as the polls closed was itself remarkable. The Tories are trying to sideline him, excluding him from the process. The Leave camp does not appear to have a first hundred-day game plan. 

Many European officials acted as spurned spouses upon learning that divorce papers have been filed. They cannot wait to see the UK's back. The head of the European Parliament called it "scandalous" that Cameron would stay on until October. He no longer holds the authority of the office. Europe is being held hostage by the internal politics of the Tory Party.  Merkel, always the counselor of caution, noted that while there was no rush, it should not take forever. 

Even if this issue is not resolved, the impact of the UK's decision will be felt immediately in the EU's decision-making. EC President Juncker called for the resignation of all the UK members of the European Parliament. UK's EU Commission, Hill, who headed up finance, resigned over the weekend. The EU heads of state summit will need to meet without Cameron to discuss the response. The summit is arguably the most important, or at least one of the most important events in the week ahead.  The response to the UK's decision plays just as important of a role in shaping the future as the UK's decision.” 

 

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