Brexit: A 35% chance no deal is reached – Reuters poll


According to the latest Reuters poll of analysts, 35% percent of them believe the UK and European Union (EU) will fail to reach a trade deal while a majority of them think the economy will take at least two years for GDP to reach pre-COVID-19 levels.

Key findings

“After a roaring third quarter in which it grew 15.5%, the economy is likely to contract 2.7% this quarter, deeper than the 2.5% contraction penciled in last month. Next quarter it will grow 1.7%.”

“After the historic 19.8% contraction in the second quarter the economy is expected to shrink 11.2% this year and expand 5.3% in 2021, little changed from last month.”

“The poll found only a median 35% chance no deal is reached, down from 40% given last month.” 

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