Brent Crude Oil is likely to break above $80/bbl this year, but retrace somewhat in 2022, in the opinion of strategists at Deutsche Bank.
Brent to retrace to $75/bbl by Q4-2022
“We think fundamental strength is likely to support further gains, with Brent likely to break above $80/bbl this year.”
“Our central case rests on OPEC introducing no further supply beyond expected Iranian volumes beginning in September.”
“There are reasons not to extrapolate toward $100/bbl from the strength of the rally, and we forecast Q4-22 Brent to retrace to $75/bbl.”
“The call on OPEC will be limited by a slow but gradual US supply response, Iran should finally achieve a deal to reintroduce supply late this year, and OPEC members may grumble louder for quota increases around the May 2022 provisional date.”
“On covid, uneven vaccination and difficulty in establishing international vaccine certificate standards may hinder long-haul air passenger traffic, while herd immunity may be out of reach owing to the higher transmissibility of new variants.”
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