BoJ's Tamura: Upside risks to price outlook are heightening
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) board member Naoki Tamura said on Wednesday that inflation rose more than expected back in May and it is difficult to predict the outlook. Tamura added that the Japanese central bank may need to act decisively if upside price risks heighten further.
Key quotes
Inflation accelerating more than I expected back in May.
The fog surrounding US tariffs is clearing somewhat.
But it is still hard to predict the outlook.
BoJ may need to act decisively if upside price risks heighten further.
Won't rule out possibility of hiking rates to address upside risks amid ongoing trade talks.
But that would require price risks to be so large that BOJ might fall behind the curve.
For now though, I don't think upside price risks warrant an imminent rate hike.
No preset idea on next rate hike timing.
It could come sooner or later depending on tariffs and their impact to the economy.
Market reaction
At the press time, the USD/JPY pair is up 0.10% on the day to trade at 145.10.
Bank of Japan FAQs
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%.
The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance.
The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance.
A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
Author
Lallalit Srijandorn
FXStreet
Lallalit Srijandorn is a Parisian at heart. She has lived in France since 2019 and now becomes a digital entrepreneur based in Paris and Bangkok.
