According to the latest Reuters poll of economists and analysts, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is unlikely to unveil more stimulus and would start phasing out its easy monetary policy in the coming months.
“Asked if the new guidance increased the likelihood of more stimulus steps by the BOJ, 33 of 39 analysts said “no” and six answered “yes,” the May 8-16 poll found.
More than half of the analysts — 22 of 37 — were critical of the BOJ’s communication with the market, saying it had not improved since Governor Haruhiko Kuroda took office in 2013.
Asked about the BOJ’s next step, 25 of 40 economists predicted it would start phasing out its easy monetary policy, while 15 economists said it would adopt more stimulus. Those results were little changed from April’s survey.
Economists predicted the Japanese economy will expand 0.5% in fiscal 2019, which started in April, although it will contract 2.0% at an annual pace in the fourth quarter because of a planned sales tax hike in October.”
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