BoJ poised to hike interest rates in Q4 — Reuters poll

Lallalit Srijandorn FXStreet

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise its key interest rate in either October or December, according to the majority of economists polled by Reuters. Nearly 96% of economists expect borrowing costs to increase at least 25 basis points (bps) by the end of March.

Additional takeaways

45 of 75 economists (60%) expect BOJ to raise rates by 25 bps this quarter.
64 of 67 economists (96%) expect BOJ policy rate to be at 0.75% by the end of March 2026.
16 of 35 economists (46%) expect BOJ to hike rates in January 2026.
11 of 35 economists (31%) expect BOJ to hike rates in December 2025.
5 of 35 economists (14%) expect BOJ to hike rates in October 2025.
18 of 27 economists (67%) don't expect Takaichi's premiership to delay a BOJ rate hike.
17 of 26 economists (65%) expressed concerns about her policies on Japan's fiscal health.

Market reaction

At the time of writing, the USD/JPY pair is trading 0.05% lower on the day to trade at 151.85.

Bank of Japan FAQs

What is the Bank of Japan?

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%.

What has been the Bank of Japan’s policy?

The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance.

How do Bank of Japan’s decisions influence the Japanese Yen?

The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance.

Why did the Bank of Japan decide to start unwinding its ultra-loose policy?

A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.

Author

Lallalit Srijandorn

FXStreet

Lallalit Srijandorn is a Parisian at heart. She has lived in France since 2019 and now becomes a digital entrepreneur based in Paris and Bangkok.

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