BoC Preview: Major Banks expecting BoC to hold fire today

Danske Bank

“Bank of Canada is widely expected to leave rates unchanged at today's interim monetary policy meeting. Things are slowly shaping up for an easing of monetary policy and with one full cut priced for 2020, markets will look for confirmation.”

TD Securities

“The Bank of Canada is unanimously expected to hold rates unchanged at 1.75% at the December meeting, leaving the focus on the tone of the statement. We don't expect the Bank to say much given substantial uncertainty still clouds their outlook; we expect them to repeat that the outlook is evolving as expected while the last paragraph should maintain a heavy emphasis on data dependence. There will not be an MPR or press conference, although the 10:00 ET policy statement will be followed by an Economic Progress Report on Thursday.”

ING

“The Bank of Canada will probably leave interest rates unchanged at the upcoming meeting but don't entirely dismiss the risk of surprise action. Given the recently stated concern about the global backdrop, and the vulnerability of Canada to global demand and commodity price moves, we suspect it is only a matter of time before interest rates are cut again.”

National Bank Financial

“We expect the central bank will keep the overnight rate at 1.75%. Since October 30th, the mid-term economic outlook has not changed enough for the Bank to alter its view that, despite some downside risks, the current situation does not warrant an easing of policy. True, Q4 GDP growth is likely to be softer than initially projected, but this is largely due to transitory factors such as the strike in the transportation industry. Underlying inflation, meanwhile, remains in line with the BoC’s target.”