Biden opens widest lead over Trump in online betting markets

The Hill reports that former Vice President Joe Biden has opened up his widest lead yet over President Trump in two top online betting markets, noting that the contender has currently extended his lead to an 8-pointer according to a RealClearPolitics average of polls.

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Biden is now favoured to win the 2020 election on both PredictIt and Smarkets, two of the highest-trafficked online betting sites based in the U.K. and New Zealand, respectively. Biden is favored 53 percent to Trump's 47 percent on PredictIt and sits at 50 percent to Trump's 43 percent on Smarkets.

The new standing represents a surge for Biden, who sat behind Trump on both platforms as recently as last week, according to CNBC.

His rise comes as cities around the country have been engulfed by protests over the death of George Floyd, an unarmed black man who died in Minneapolis police custody. Biden's lead on both sites is now the highest it's been since March, when he became the presumptive Democratic nominee.

“Nationwide protests in the wake of George Floyd’s killing and Trump’s response have seemingly had wide-reaching consequences for the 2020 election,” a political analyst with Smarkets told CNBC.

A poll released Wednesday found the former vice president and Trump within just a few percentage points of each other in several key battleground states, including Florida, Arizona and Michigan, all seen as key to the president's reelection chances.

Market implications

Stocks will not like the uncertainty as the elections draw closer, but it is still early days. The US indexes are already stalling on second think as the US economy shows mix signs of prospects of a V-shaped recovery in the data. Moreover, Trump is not in a favourable position considering the US administration handling of the coronavirus. 

A Los Angeles Times analysis has shown that the number of weekly cases in California continues to rise, exceeding 17,000 last week for the first time in the pandemic. California is one of about 20 states where new cases are increasing over the past five days, according to Johns Hopkins University.

When factoring in the riots, another serious spike in cases isn't too improbable based on the above information and with the recovery unlikely to be swift, the pain in the jobs market looks set to linger, something to keep in mind heading into Friday's jobs market. 

At this juncture, in an attempt to make America 'Great Again', Trump may well only be remembered for nearly starting a war with China, destroying Venezuela, hundreds of thousands of COVID-19 deaths, the worst recession since the GFC, the highest ever level of unemployment and job losses and riots across the nation while sending the nation into a deeper debt crisis. 

Therefore, if the welfare of the nation and political environment doesn't improve drastically from here, there is a stronger possibility that Trump will lose the race which will make for volatility later in the year.