The Hill reports that former Vice President Joe Biden has opened up his widest lead yet over President Trump in two top online betting markets, noting that the contender has currently extended his lead to an 8-pointer according to a RealClearPolitics average of polls.
Lead paragraphs
Biden is now favoured to win the 2020 election on both PredictIt and Smarkets, two of the highest-trafficked online betting sites based in the U.K. and New Zealand, respectively. Biden is favored 53 percent to Trump's 47 percent on PredictIt and sits at 50 percent to Trump's 43 percent on Smarkets.
The new standing represents a surge for Biden, who sat behind Trump on both platforms as recently as last week, according to CNBC.
His rise comes as cities around the country have been engulfed by protests over the death of George Floyd, an unarmed black man who died in Minneapolis police custody. Biden's lead on both sites is now the highest it's been since March, when he became the presumptive Democratic nominee.
“Nationwide protests in the wake of George Floyd’s killing and Trump’s response have seemingly had wide-reaching consequences for the 2020 election,” a political analyst with Smarkets told CNBC.
A poll released Wednesday found the former vice president and Trump within just a few percentage points of each other in several key battleground states, including Florida, Arizona and Michigan, all seen as key to the president's reelection chances.
Market implications
Stocks will not like the uncertainty as the elections draw closer, but it is still early days. The US indexes are already stalling on second think as the US economy shows mix signs of prospects of a V-shaped recovery in the data. Moreover, Trump is not in a favourable position considering the US administration handling of the coronavirus.
A Los Angeles Times analysis has shown that the number of weekly cases in California continues to rise, exceeding 17,000 last week for the first time in the pandemic. California is one of about 20 states where new cases are increasing over the past five days, according to Johns Hopkins University.
When factoring in the riots, another serious spike in cases isn't too improbable based on the above information and with the recovery unlikely to be swift, the pain in the jobs market looks set to linger, something to keep in mind heading into Friday's jobs market.
At this juncture, in an attempt to make America 'Great Again', Trump may well only be remembered for nearly starting a war with China, destroying Venezuela, hundreds of thousands of COVID-19 deaths, the worst recession since the GFC, the highest ever level of unemployment and job losses and riots across the nation while sending the nation into a deeper debt crisis.
Therefore, if the welfare of the nation and political environment doesn't improve drastically from here, there is a stronger possibility that Trump will lose the race which will make for volatility later in the year.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD clings to daily gains above 1.0650
EUR/USD gained traction and turned positive on the day above 1.0650. The improvement seen in risk mood following the earlier flight to safety weighs on the US Dollar ahead of the weekend and helps the pair push higher.
GBP/USD recovers toward 1.2450 after UK Retail Sales data
GBP/USD reversed its direction and advanced to the 1.2450 area after touching a fresh multi-month low below 1.2400 in the Asian session. The positive shift seen in risk mood on easing fears over a deepening Iran-Israel conflict supports the pair.
Gold holds steady at around $2,380 following earlier spike
Gold stabilized near $2,380 after spiking above $2,400 with the immediate reaction to reports of Israel striking Iran. Meanwhile, the pullback seen in the US Treasury bond yields helps XAU/USD hold its ground.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC post-halving rally could be partially priced in Premium
Bitcoin price shows no signs of directional bias while it holds above $60,000. The fourth BTC halving is partially priced in, according to Deutsche Bank’s research.
Week ahead – US GDP and BoJ decision on top of next week’s agenda
US GDP, core PCE and PMIs the next tests for the Dollar. Investors await BoJ for guidance about next rate hike. EU and UK PMIs, as well as Australian CPIs also on tap.