Rabobank analysts are expecting the Banxico to leave the policy rate unchanged at 8.25% on Thursday, May 16th.
“All of the 20 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg (including ourselves) are also expecting a no-change decision.”
“At the last meeting, Banxico highlighted the exchange rate, the Fed, economic slack and the Budget as key. The more dovish Fed certainly supports the view of no further hikes in Mexico.”
“Our base case is unchanged: “Banxico will cut rates in H2 but we continue to expect that slightly later in the year than the summer move implied by the curve. We would also argue that the door is still open for a hike should MXN slump dramatically.”
“We expect five 25bp rate cuts from the Fed in 2020.”
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