GBP/USD is down on broad USD strength, BBH FX analysts report.
Swaps market is pricing in 50bps of cuts over the next 12 months
"The UK January labor market data matched expectations and does not move the dial on BOE rate expectations. The unemployment rate printed at 4.4% vs. 4.4% in December, total regular pay was 5.9% y/y vs. 5.9% in December, and the policy-relevant private sector regular pay was 6.1% y/y vs. 6.2% in December."
"Leading indicators point to a softer jobs market. In February, the KPMG/REC permanent placement index remained in contraction territory for a 29th month in a row, and the DMP survey showed firm expected no employment growth over the year ahead. Moreover, the vacancies-to-unemployment ratio is below the 0.6 level that Bank researchers consider to be consistent with a balanced labor market."
"The Bank of England is expected to keep the policy rate steady at 4.50%. The BOE is also expected to stick to its guidance of a gradual and careful approach to further rate cuts. The UK economy unexpectedly contracted in January, but underlying inflation remains stubbornly high above 2%. The next Monetary Policy Report with updated macroeconomic projections is due in May. Over the next 12 months, the swaps market is pricing in 50bps of cuts and small odds of an additional 25bps cut.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD: Extra advances look likely
AUD/USD briefly advanced to new yearly peaks near 0.6450, although it gave away all that move later in the day along with the firm performance of the US Dollar on the back of diminishing US-China trade jitters. All the attention now shifts to Australian inflation gauges due on Wednesday.
EUR/USD gathers strength to near 1.1400 ahead of German data, US PCE releases
The EUR/USD pair gains ground to near 1.1390 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The US Dollar edges lower against the Euro due to softer-than-expected US economic data. The German economic data and US Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index report for March will be in the spotlight later on Wednesday.
Gold bounces off lows near $3,300
After bottoming out near the $3,300 region per troy ounce, Gold prices approach the $3,330 zone as the US Dollar gives away part of its daily advance and the risk-on mood gathers extra pace.
Australia CPI expected to show inflation eased further in Q1, backing case for more rate cuts
Australia will release multiple inflation figures on Wednesday and financial markets anticipate price pressures easing further at the beginning of 2025, paving the way for additional Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate cuts. The central bank is meant to meet to decide on monetary policy on May 19-20.
May flashlight for the FOMC blackout period – Waiting for the fog to lift
We expect the FOMC will leave its target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25-4.50% at its upcoming meeting on May 6-7, a view widely shared by financial markets and economists. Market pricing currently implies only a 9% probability of the FOMC cutting the fed funds rate by 25 bps.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.