Australia: MIA consumer taints decent growth report - TDS

Sandeep Kanihama FXStreet Contributor

Australian Sep qtr GDP rose by +0.6%/qtr, marginally disappointing consensus but higher than TD’s post-trade forecast of +0.5%/qtr, explains the research team at TDS.

Key Quotes

“The AUD sank from $US0.761 to $US0.757 on the disappointment, but we remain medium -term AUD bulls as the underlying economy remains solid and the cash rate won’t remain at 1.5% forever.”

“After (upward) revisions, GDP expanded by 2.6% in 2016 (was 2.4%) and so our 2017 tracking is 2.3%. Our 2018 estimate is for marginally above-trend growth of 3%.”

“The RBA Board elected to keep the cash rate at 1.5%, and we see the Bank remaining on hold well into 2018.”

“After Oct retail sales yesterday (+0.5%/m) we turn to tomorrow’s Oct trade balance (TD +$A300m; mkt +$A1.4b). Our below-market trade forecast was shaped by the large jump in imports from China (Chinese exports to Australia surged).”

Author

Sandeep Kanihama

FXStreet Contributor

Sandeep Kanihama is an FX Editor and Analyst with FXstreet having principally focus area on Asia and European markets with commodity, currency and equities coverage. He is stationed in the Indian capital city of Delhi.

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